I’ve studied the history and politics of the European Union a lot the last 5 months or so. I know how the political institutions and I know the public opinion about the EU. Everyone is now making a big deal about France rejecting the EU Charter or Constitution, but it really isn’t that big of a deal.
First of all, it is because the thing is 400+ pages and no ordinary citizen knows what the hell it says. Instead of allowing laws and directives from the Commission create loopholes and exceptions for laws, they decided to codify every exception and loophole possible. It is so much legalese and other mumbo-jumbo that it really meant nothing. At best it was symbolic.
Second, the domestic political issues in France drove the people to say no. The French are getting pretty upset with President Jacques Chirac and his PM, Raffarin. Most are expecting Raffarin to be replaced soon after yesterday’s vote. The big thing is, though, that in the next presidential and parliamentary elections, Chirac’s center-right neo-Gaullist government is going to be voted out of office. When the new government comes into power, most likely another vote will happen and my prediction is that the French will be more willing to vote on the Constitution because they now like their domestic political situation instead of highly disapproving of it.
But like I said earlier, the Constitution really is a piece of junk. It just doesn’t do the things normal national constitutions do. I don’t think the Constitution will become the standard bearer that the Eurocrats think it will become. The people just won’t accept. So they really are going to have to go back to the drawing board on it and come up with something with more positive rights outlined and clearly more hospitable to all Europeans.
Nevertheless, I don’t think is going to happen within the next 5-10 years. The last decade for the EU has been a monumental one full of growth and increasing world power. The EU hasn’t expected that type of growth since the late 1960s to mid 1970s. And right after that rapid expansion and growth, the EU suddenly halted. It had to take a breather. It had to catch up with everything that it had done, let the institutions evolve, and let the people accept the new political realities.
The EU is going through the same effect right now, its just that the European leadership doesn’t recognize it. It is time for the 21st century’s first supranational political breather. And I think that when Great Britain takes over the Presidency on 1 July, things will become much better and we’ll see the EU grasp the ordeal that it is now in.
Look, this is probably the best thing for America right now. The euro is sliding pretty quickly right now, as inexperience investors and dumb currency traders think that the EU is going to disappear after this one bad vote. It is naivete at its finest. With the euro sliding, the dollar will (hopefully!) rebound and strengthen our economy a bit more.
Moreover, the EU is and should be our ally. We share common goals, and when it comes to foreign policy, we can share those common goals to adopt a highly succesful approach to world politics. But the go-it-on-our-own attitude of the United States poses a big problem to that joint approach. And, the EU helps tone down are crusade-ish rhetoric; and we definitely need them to keep doing that.
The EU will rebound, there is no doubt about that, and the United States will and must work to improve relations and solidify our common bonds.
