Today’s The Hilll, a newspaper about and for Congress in Washington DC, published a story today as part of the “Air War” feature about the ads used during the primary race from Secretary of State Chet Culver and US Representative Jim Nussle. The Culver ad they looked at can be viewed here, while Nussle’s can be viewed here. Evidently, according to Wilson Research Strategies, Culver’s ad didn’t do well among Democrats. From the story:
“Nussle’s ad was favored by 53 percent of Democrats, compared to Culver’s 31 percent. Nussle’s ad won overall, 58-25.
For strength of message, Democrats gave Culver’s ad a 5.6 on a 1-10 scale, while Nussle’s got a 6.5. Overall, respondents gave Nussle a 6.5 rating on his message, while Culver got a 5.0, well below the Air War average of 6.1.”
Evidently the Air War feature is predominantly about guaging who has the most memorable ad. If that’s the only standard for ads then I’m sure most ads don’t do all that well. My initial thoughts to the piece: So what? Let me explain.
First of all, there was a difference in the nature of the two ads. Nussle’s could largely be considered a general election ad, as he had no primary opponent after Bob Vander Plaats dropped out and the ad of Nussle’s they talk about didn’t appear until after BVP had joined Nussle as his Lt. Gov. candidate. Culver’s ad was meant to appeal to a broad swath of Iowa Democrats — or at least those not registered or independents — to get them to support his primary candidacy against two other fierce competitors.
Your response then, of course, is ‘well, it obviously didn’t work well with Democrats. just look at what the researchers found out.’ Again, I ask, so what? WRS set up focus groups full of Democrats and Republicans, as well as others, and then looked at their ratings. But who are these Democrats and where are they from? The WRS website doesn’t give any details about the sample and neither does the piece in The Hill. Even if you do buy everything they say, I’d take it with a grain of salt. The least they could do is provide some details about the samples. These ads were meant to appeal to Iowans, not Democrats and strategists in the DC area overall.
Even then, if the ads didn’t work, shouldn’t Mike Blouin or Ed Fallon have done better in the primary? I think Ed Fallon primarily had the most memorable ads in the entire race, and Mike Blouin had a couple that could be considered fairly memorable for the content and the heated debate the evoked. But is the purpose of campaign advertisements just making a memorable ad, or is there something more to the goal of the advertisment? Most experts agree that there is something more.
John Hazen White Distinguished Professor of Public Policy and Political Science Darell M. West of Brown University writes in Air Wars: Television and Advertising in Election Campaigns, 1952-2004:
“Consultants judge the effectiveness of ads by the ultimate results–who wins. […]
As an alternative, journalists evaluate ads by asking voters to indicate whther commercials influenced them. When asked directly whether television commercials helped them decide how to vote, most voters says ads did not influence them. […]
But this is not a meaningful way of looking at advertising. Such responses undoubtedly reflect an unwillingness to admit that external agents have any effect. […]
In studying campaign ads, one needs to emphasize the overall context in which people make decisions. […]
This idea is central to understanding campaign advertisments. Commercials cannot be explored in isolation from candidate behavior and the general flow of media information. An analysis of thirty-second spots requires a keen awareness of the structure of electoral competition, strategic candidate behavior, media coverage, and public opinion. A variety of long- and short-term factors go into voter decision-making. […]
Generally, the better known candidates are, the less ads are able to sway voter impressions.” {Air Wars, pp. 15-16}
Now, granted that the research company didn’t evaluate the ads like journalists, but by putting it to a focus group of an unknown constituency (who may not even be members of the electorate that count), they can’t really effectively gauge what kind of impact the ad had, beyond it being considered not worth remembering in the sheer context of Culver’s ad versus Nussle’s ad in an isolated focus group roundtable.
Also, take note of West’s comments about being able to sway voter impressions if you’re not that well-known. The CEO of the research firm was quoted in The Hill saying:
“For whatever reason, this ad, whereas it didn’t do all that poorly in some of the other areas, is likely to generate absolutely no buzz whatsoever,” Wilson said. “It’s just not a memorable ad. So, for a candidate who is not all that well-known running against a fairly well-known member of Congress, I would say this ad just isn’t going to get it done.”
For whatever reason, Wilson either doesn’t the numbers coming out of Iowa about name recognition or just plain doesn’t care and is a focus-group hack. The most recent Research 2000 polling (late May 2006) gave Jim Nussle only 15% No Opinion when considering favorability (the no opion answer is comparative to not recognizing the name in this poll) while Culver had a 22% No Opinion response. That’s only a 7% difference meaning that over 3/4 of those polled recognized Culver and Nussle’s names. And that should be expected. Nussle is a well-known Republican congressman with a committee chairmanship while Culver has twice run and won statewide elections, putting his name out there to the people of Iowa. Clearly, 78% name recognition doesn’t make Culver “a candidate who is not all that well-known.”
Consider me to be spinning this as much as you want, but at the very minimum you can at least take what this research firm and story says with a grain of salt. So, Krusty can make note of it here and claim that it means bad things for Democrats. Can he back it up? Nope, but I just showed you how you can entirely push aside this story, or at worst, take it with a grain of salt. Not that this even matters though for ordinary voters. I mean, honestly, how many undecided Iowans actually read The Hill or read Krusty’s blog (or mine for that matter) and will consider this story important. It is a story for geeky political folk like us to get interested in.