Archive for November, 2006

2008: My thoughts on Vilsack’s announcement speech

You can watch Tom Vilsack talk about the speech itself here on his campaign videoblog. And you can read the full text of his remarks here — and I’m sure there will be some kind of video coverage of the speech on the campaign blog soon. The Register already has some video of the speech here.

Anyway, to my thoughts on the speech. In the 20 minute or so speech, it was interrupted by applause and chants at least 13 times, from my count. I think that pretty much says that the introductory location was a good choice with lots of loud and enthusiastic supporters. The message itself a strong and positive one that coincided with the theme of the announcement tour: the American people need a leader with the courage to embrace change and be challenged to do so, and Tom Vilsack is that man.

When comparing the prepared remarks to the actual statements Vilsack made, you can tell he got a bit extemporaneous. But that was a good thing. He put emotion and feeling into his extemporaneous remarks and added accomplishments and details, things that seemed to be lacking in the prepared text. It also proves that he can still pump out a coherent and cohesive message in a stump speech without changing the meaning of it. Being able to act on your toes like that is a sure sign of a strong politician.

Kay Henderson’s piece about the speech at Radio Iowa probably sums up the speech best in a non-partisan way. It was a very telling and emotional speech that connected with the audience and proved just how much change, community, and opportunity will be used as themes in Vilsack’s campaign.

David Yepsen tries to offer up some analysis in his usual pundit style — by reading prepared remarks and not even embarking to Mt. Pleasant to actually attend the announcement. Instead, he sits in his office in Des Moines and writes a blog post saying Vilsack blew the announcement by not talking about Iraq. The truth is, Vilsack didn’t blow anything. He made the announcement speech and tour what it needed to be — an introduction to the voters across the state and this country about who he is and what his message will be. Talking about Iraq is just one position, while an important, but shouldn’t be the focal point of an announcement. And the fact is, this line from Vilsack’s remarks got the loudest applause and ovation of anything besides the declaration of candidacy:

“Together, with the courage to create change let us embrace a new foreign policy that renews friendships, develops alliances and isolates enemies. In Iraq, we must act, take our troops out of harm’s way and allow Iraqis to begin providing their own security.”

To my knowledge, that’s one of the clearest positions that Vilsack has taken on Iraq lately. And while still clearly vague, it does emphasize a role he sees for troop redeployment or withdrawal and a fundamental overhaul of the current ’stay-the-course’ strategy that only furthers and worsens the civil war that is taking place in Iraq. Today was a day about offering answering questions like ‘Who is Tom Vilsack?’ or ‘Why are you running?’ or ‘What is your message?’ not answers to questions like the specifics of your plan for Iraq. David Yepsen knows that, he’s just trying to be a bully and get an answer from Vilsack on the policy. The truth is, looking to any candidate for real specifics is ridiculous right now. But broad themes and suggestions on how they’ll follow through with their ideas, now that’s what folks should be looking for.

Look, it was a good announcement and the crowd in Iowa responded. Now it is up to the response across the country. And that’s what the coming days will show. And if you’re interested, here is Chris Cillizza’s take on the case for Vilsack’s candidacy.

Back to Des Moines

I am currently traveling on Highway 34 on my nice long trip back to Des Moines. I will have my thoughts on the announcement speech and the event itself up a little bit later today, as well as the full text of Gov. Vilsack’s remarks. All in all, it seemed to be a worthwhile trip.

The event begins

Dave Helliman, Ruth Harkin, and Sally Pederson have been introduced and are taking the stage.

Dave says he’s the guy who lives on the end of the last gravel road in Jackson Township, here in Henry County. He’s introducing the IWC staff and welcomes the crowd and thanks them for being here. Looks like turnout is about 500 or so people, possibly more as the overflow areas are beginning to be populated by lots of folks on the viewing level above the main floor of the the gymnasium.

Quite the enthusiastic crowd here cheering for Vilsack, especially with Dave’s mention that Tom Vilsack will make a “great American president.”

Ruth Harkin is speaking now, not exactly a fantastic speaker. She’s speaking on behalf of Senator Tom Harkin, her husband, who couldn’t be here because of his travel schedule. “He will make a great president because he has been a great governor.” In the same way that Sen. Dick Durbin is encouraging an Obama run for President, Sen. Tom Harkin will be backing up Gov. Vilsack in his run for the White House. She just said she was sure that Tom Vilsack will win the Iowa Caucuses in 2008.

Sally Pederson is next to take the stage…I’m shutting down for just a bit to save battery power. I’ll be back in a few minutes.

It seems there was a naturally scheduled lull in the program here. The band plays “Louie Louie,” then “Livin’ on a Prayer,” and “Celebration.” Your usual campaign music. When the Vilsacks finally get into’d, they come on stage to the tune of — I believe — the “Final Countdown.” Curious choice, but I’ll allow it.

Christie V. highlights Tom’s embrace of change when he first came to Iowa and as he took a leadership role here in Mt. Pleasant, and then across the stage. As Christie notes, he “embraces change.”

As Christie intros Tom, the crowd fiercely chants “Go Tom, Go!” He’s a bit extemporaneous with his remarks but when he declares his candidacy in the remarks the crowd applauds and chants even more. They’re really into the remarks and they like what he’s talking about. I’ll hopefully have a full digital copy of the remarks later this afternoon.

And the band starts…

Things are beginning here at IWC. The Mt. Pleasant High School band just started playing “Carry on Wayward Son” by Kansas. Kind of fitting, it seems.

And as Dave Price alludes to, expect a lot of ‘change’ comments in Vilsack’s remarks this morning. The tour is, after all, the ‘Courage to Create Change’ tour.

Live from Mt. Pleasant

I arrived in Mt. Pleasant about 40 minutes ago and the crowd at the Iowa Wesleyan College gym has slowly but surely continued to increase in size and the local student band is here to play as well.

In terms of media, I was completely surprised at the number of national outlets that have turned out to cover the announcement. Candy Crowley of CNN is here, as well as Carl Cameron from Fox News, and a team from Chicago came to cover the event for NBC. Locally, all of the outlets seem to be here as well as folks from the Quad Cities and the Iowa City-Cedar Rapids area. There’s even a Twin Cities crew as well as a photojournalist from Great Britain. So literally, folks are coming from all over to see Vilsack’s announcement.

In terms of Democratic dignitaries and faces, I haven’t seen too many yet. I know Gordon Fischer and his wife are here, and Gordon is actually doing a TV interview right now. He’s got a Vilsack 08 sticker on so it looks like he’s already doing the interviews. It looks like there a couple of staffers from the Gov.’s office here too as well, so it looks like there will be some loyalty for sure.

I’ve seen the prepared remarks from Vilsack and they look to be quite motivating, but it will definitely be interesting to see how the crowd reacts. Unfortunately, I forgot my camera but I hear that TomVilsack08.com will have some photos taken by spectators at the potluck and today’s announcement up on their site soon.

More to come…

Oh, and WOI-TV lives up to expectations by arriving late and almost not having room on the press stage for their camera. And now their crew is bickering about how they’re going to cover the event.

On my way to Mt. Pleasant

In a just a few minutes I’m off to Gov. Tom Vilsack’s formal announcement that he’ll be running for President in 2008. Should be a nice long and cold drive.

If you’re at all curious about last night’s potluck, go ahead and check out these blog posts from WHO’s Dave Price and Radio Iowa’s Kay Henderson who were both there.

2008: Obama is for real

Marc Ambinder at the Hotline clearly shows just how real an Obama for President candidacy is, especially considering the acts being taken by advisors to his campaign already. Things are moving and the groundwork is being laid — it is just a matter of making it official through an FEC filing.

And evidently, the threat is real enough that Hillary Clinton might even be afraid of him. But she shouldn’t just be afraid of Obama, but surviving the primary process itself. You can read some of the problems Chuck Todd foresees in a Clinton primary campaign here.

Frustration

I like building the blogosphere because I think its a great way to have debate with other ordinary citizen journalists, especially when both sides of the political spectrum are active. Essentially, the only conservative blogs that I read regularly from Iowa are Krusty, The Real Sporer, and State 29. That’s because their posts are mainly political. I guess I could throw in Iowa Ennui as well.

But there are other smaller blogs out there, particularly on the conservative side, that just piss me off. One of them is Mainstream Iowan. He just doesn’t add to the discourse at all. State 29 definitely pisses me off and its because he’s vulgar in his commentary to point of being ridiculous, not insightful. But at least he’ll engage in an argument that is usually semi-rational. But not Mainstream Iowan.

Anyway, I read his post from today and damn near freaked out. I just don’t get people like him. But I’ve decided not to link to him or help him grow anymore. I want to build this atmosphere in Iowa but I’m going to have some requirements and some of them are the willingness or ability to at least debate and add more than just hefty generalizations about religion or politics.

/rant.

Link updates

I’ve updated some of my Iowa blog links by including the great new aggregator BlogNetNews-Iowa and the Register blog Straight out of the Cornfield. Also, make sure to check out TM Lindsey’s Political Fallout, already full of some good parody and satire.

Over the next few days, I’ll update the 2008 PAC links to actually include actual campaign links (so far that’d only be Tom Vilsack’s) but I’ll probably also add a link to Barack Obama’s campaign site as he basically lays the groundwork for an eventual presidential announcement, which I can guarantee is coming.

Diversity in agriculture

I missed this post from Kyle last week while I was on vacation, but I think it is worth emphasizing now: Iowa could have had an agriculture secretary who recognized the ability Iowa has to diversify its agricultural economy and situation. Kyle’s right that we could basically mike Iowa focus on ethanol all we want (with some emphasis on soybeans on the side) or we can diversify, while still emphasizing what we’re good at. It was one of the points that Denise O’Brien made throughout the campaign, specifically during her appearance with Northey on Iowa Press.

The Iowa Farm Bureau, through Iowans for Agriculture, effectively bought the election for Northey. If we ever needed a clear and concise reason to look at campaign finance reform in Iowa and didn’t have an effective example, the Northey-O’Brien race provides us with one.

2008: Vilsack campaign kicks off with potluck tonight

Kay Henderson of Radio Iowa has the story. It is quite a unique way to homage to your roots, if I do say so myself. All the food sounds like another Thanksgiving celebration and we all know that small-town Iowans know how to cook and eat. Over at TomVilsack08.com, Christie Vilsack talks about Mt. Pleasant and its history. Definitely worth a watch. The videoblog there will be updated throughout the next several days or so as the announcement tour takes place, so take a look.

In other 2008er news, Sen. John Edwards is in town tonight and Common Iowan will be there. Expect a report at his place later tonight or tomorrow sometime.

Civic Skinny wonders if Culver will be at the Vilsack announcement tomorrow morning. I find it doubtful, since Culver has speculated that he’ll remain neutral in the 2008 race, not to mention that Vilsack and Culver have never been particularly close (though the campaigning together did grow on them). I think that’s a good decision on Culver’s part because as the newly elected governor, he’ll probably have a large role in the construction of the new IDP staff under whoever gets elected chairman (and he might even be able to influence who gets elected chairman). Whether he remains to be neutral is yet to be seen but I won’t be expecting him in Mt. Pleasant tomorrow. And, for the record, if Culver decides not to remain neutral, expect some support for Sen. John Edwards from him or those connected to him.

Will the cigarette tax increase happen?

The odds seem to be highly in the Democrats’ favor to increase the state tax on tobacco products from a measly $0.36 to something along the lines of the $1.00 range. The most extreme increase has been looking at raising the tax by $1.00 and taking the tax to $1.36 but I don’t see that as likely happening. When you push your extreme so far, what you’re able to do is create a better bargaining ground in the middle, something that ends up be acceptable to both sides.

But lately, I’ve seen a lot of wishy-washiness from Majority Leader Gronstal and Speaker Pat Murphy about what will happen with the cigarette tax, including in this Register piece from Monday.

“Democrats in the new Legislature said it’s too soon to predict what will happen.

Sen. Mike Gronstal, who will be the Senate majority leader, acknowledged that anti-tobacco proposals were sidetracked under the previous regime. “I certainly think lots of things are possible now that weren’t possible before,” he said.

Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, said many members of both parties want to consider raising cigarette taxes, but he’s unsure by how much. He also said he personally favors allowing cities to ban smoking in public places.

The new House Speaker, Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque, has said legislators’ zeal for a cigarette-tax increase might have cooled in recent years as the state budget improved and the need for new revenues declined.”

I hope they’re playing the expectations game, by keeping proponents of leaving the tax the same on their toes so they won’t necessarily be prepared to fight back so hard against proposed increases. But you can never be sure.

The fact is, the Culver administration’s budget will likely be predicated, to some extent, on an a cigarette tax increase. During the campaign season, it is how he proposed to pay for a lot of his health care proposals and it is unlikely that will change. The cigarette tax will get raised, but now it is a matter of how much. It is also a matter of who controls the legislative agenda and how much of a role Culver will have in defining it. As David Yepsen noted yesterday, Mike Gronstal is going to have a lot of power in the statehouse. He’s going to have to work with Governor Culver (and vice versa) to be able to make solid policy and legislative changes from the Democrats.

Brennan for IDP Chair?

UPDATE: Gordon Fischer has heard Brennan’s name floated around as well and has a post up about him. Seems like he’s the top choice.
- - - - - - - - - - -
So says Drew Miller. I’m not sure if he’s entirely back from his blogging hiatus or not, but I for one welcome his insight and humor back to the progressive side of the Iowa blogosphere.

I haven’t heard much talk about other potential chairs for the IDP other than Rob Tully’s name thrown around and now Scott Brennan’s. What do you guys know?

And if you could have your ideal IDP chair, who would you pick?

The State Central Committee meets on Saturday to make their pick. Leave your recommendations here.

2008: Edwards in town tomorrow

Common Iowan has the details on a John Edwards book tour visit tomorrow to West Des Moines. If you’re at all interested in finding out some more info or common themes on a possible (and probable) Edwards 2008 run, I’d recommend stopping by. If I wasn’t going to be in class tomorrow at that time, I’d be there.

2008: Vilsack events in Mt. Pleasant tomorrow and Thursday

This week marks the official announcement and tour that Governor Tom Vilsack will make across the nation declaring his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for President. The first event will be a potluck dinner tomorrow night in Mt. Pleasant with family, friends, and supporters. The official announcement tour begins Thursday morning at 9:30 AM at the Iowa Wesleyan College Howe Center. The tour is being called the “Courage to Create Change” tour and will take Vilsack to several different states over the next week, including Iowa (of course), New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Nevada.

You can learn more about the tour by clicking here and visiting the Vilsack 08 website. I plan on being at the announcement on Thursday so look for some write-ups of the event here along with some links to promised video-blogging from the online crew at TomVilsack08.com.

One other thing: I felt obligated to respond to this post by Kyle where he laments the title of the email Christie Vilsack sent out from the campaign entitled “We’re coming to your state this week” because its emblematic of the traveling Gov. Vilsack has been doing and because he hasn’t been focused on governance. I think there are some legitimate discussions to be had over his level of involvement in governance and policymaking in Iowa over the last 6 months, but in large part I say Vilsack has done a fine job of being politically involved by making sure that Democrats won — and won big — on election day. Sure he was out working on a run for President but that’s what happens when you’re holding one elected office and are seeking another that’s higher than you. I’m sure Ed Fallon’s run for governor took a bit away from strictly focusing on the issues facing House District 66, but it didn’t stop Fallon and the circumstances facing Vilsack’s current position and the one he’s seeking now shouldn’t stop him in his endeavors. Not to mention the fact that the email was a bulk one sent from the email address info@tomvilsack08.com, so it likely went to folks in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as well as folks in Iowa.

…You can click here to see Kyle’s response.


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