Political Forecast

Unlike some other Iowa bloggers, I thought I was dreaming last night. And then I woke up, and it was indeed a dream came true. As Secretary of State Chet Culver said on Monday, Iowans had the ability to make histoyr yesterday. And Governor-Elect Culver reiterated that last night as the Democrats swept the governorship, the state senate, and the state house. Democrats accomplished the trifecta in Iowa — we took it all. There hasn’t been a Democratic movement in this state like this since 1964 and LBJ. According to the Register, the Democrats control the Iowa House at 54 - 45 and control the Iowa Senate at 30 - 20. Those are overwhelming margins.

Where do we go from here? Well, first of all, we have to thank our amazing slate of candidates throughout the state who helped get the job done. Without their hardwork, this could’ve been just a mediocre year where Democrats hold steady thanks to a strong national wind. And we also have to thank their staff. I’ve been fortunate enough to volunteer and help out with some amazing Culver staffers and Iowa Democratic Party staffers as we worked together to make this state a deep blue once again.

Should we boast? Of course we should, but not for long and not extravagantly. We won, plain and simple. But as Governor-Elect Culver said last night, we have to lock arms and produce ‘One Iowa’ and lead this state in a combined effort to make it great for everyone. We have ideas and plans with which we need to follow through, and we can do that.

How did Democrats win? Well, it was clear that we did the far superior job on turnout across this state. The much-acclaimed Republican 72-hour program was nothing compared to a comprehensive field plan launched by the IDP Field staff to target drop-off Democrats and those who sincerely needed absentees to vote whether it was for physical reasons or they just were irregular voters. Throughout the run-up to election day, many conservatives as well as Iowa pundits had been lamenting the absentee ballot strategy of Iowa Democrats saying that it wasn’t living up to the 2002 results. The fact was, we were doing something different. David Yepsen couldn’t realize what we were doing but now myself and others who had faith in the program have been vindicated, which is always a sweet feeling. From my counting, Culver won 59 of Iowa’s 99 counties. That is quite impressive.

Just how Democratic is Iowa now? I think Democrats made significant gains in this election, but we also made gains among the Democrats in Iowa who have been less than enthusiastic. Iowa’s Congressional delegation is now 4 Democrats and 3 Republicans — a distinct advantage and one that I hope will have a significant impact on policy in Washington DC. Congressmen Boswell, Braley, and Loebsack will lead this state well, along with Senator Tom Harkin. Building off of Senator Harkin’s past anecdotes, it sure seems like they’re going to need a bigger office for meetings come January with the 110th Congress convenes.

How did we bloggers do? Well, no matter what side of the aisle you were on, your opinions, posts, and comments mattered. We aren’t the news, but we sure help make it happen. We influence those who make the news and we put the stories out there for debate. Where else could you hear or read serious dicussion about the Iowa rainforest project — particularly after Culver and Judge did the ad criticizing the $50 million in federal money for it? You heard the discussion the blogs. How and why did anyone start paying attention to the Leach-Loebsack race? The blogs, the netroots, Iowans online. The only reason that Dave Loebsack was ever able to debate Jim Leach in front of a statewide audience on IPTV’s Iowa Press is because of the large email campaign the Iowa Rapid Response team was able to launch at IPTV. I know that people in the traditional Iowa media read us and follow what we say and report — people like Kay Henderson of Radio Iowa, Todd Dorman of Lee Enterprises, Charlotte Eby, and Dave Price of WHO-TV. Three of those four even have blogs themselves, recognizing just how much more of an outlet it gives them to tell their stories and report back to their readers.

The democratic process won yesterday and that resulted in a Democratic takeover — not just here in Iowa, but across the nation. Democrats now control a majority of legislative chambers at the state level, control a majority of governorships, control the US House, and control the US Senate. Is this a Democratic mandate? Possibly, and I think particularly at the state level it is the case. At the national level, it is clearly a mandate for change, a change that Democrats provide.

Together we prepared, we planned, we strategized, we worked, and we won. Now is our chance to lead. There have been a large number of young Democrats involved in this process as well and by winning now, we have help create a Democratic youth legacy — through newly elected members of the state house but also through a lively and young group of campaign staffers who have had an amazing campaign and will be the future of politics in this state.

Thank you to all of you for your help. Leave your thoughts and reflections on the race in the comments.