2007 January archive at Political Forecast

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Archive for January, 2007

MN-Sen: Franken’s in

Published by

Chris Woods

January 31, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Congress, Democrats, Harkin, Tom and Iowa politics. 1 Comment

Al Franken is going to run against Republican Norm Coleman in the 2008 Senate race in Minnesota. That almost makes me want to apply to work for his campaign immediately, though I’m sure with his name recognition and popularity, he’ll have a lot of qualified people contacting him.

I’m pretty sure that this makes the MN-Sen seat an almost guaranteed pick up for Democrats in 2008. Congressional Quarterly has issued their earliest senate forecast chart — a full 21 months before the election — for the 33 seats facing elections in 2008. In total, 12 of the seats are held by Democrats and 21 are held by Republicans. In the weakest two categories (No Clear Favorite and Leans X Party), 6 Republicans fall into those categories while only 2 Democratic seats do. Norm Coleman’s seat in Minnesota is one of them.

In other Senate-related news, the Register has a quick information piece on Sen. Tom Harkin’s 2006 fundraising, with a crappy headline that indulges in the rumors that he might not run. You’d think once a rumor had been started, then killed, that it would absolutely be killed. Jane Norman must not get it, even though she’s one of the people who basically killed the rumor. And, for the record, CQ calls Harkin’s seat Democrat Favored.

Cost per vote in Iowa

Published by

Chris Woods

January 31, 2007 in 2006 Elections, 2008 Elections, Boswell, Leonard, Braley, Congress, Democrats, IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, IA-04, IA-05, Iowa politics, Lamberti, Jeff and Republicans. 2 Comments

The National Journal has a good story available online today called “The Value of a Vote” that discussed the importance of money in politics, particularly in the 2006 midterm elections and how expenditures impacted the electorate. It doesn’t necessarily reach any conclusions about self-funded candidates or the viability of candidates who spend more money or less, but I’ve crunched some numbers and here is the cost per vote for each congressional race in Iowa from 2006.

The amounts are generated by taking the amount of candidate dispersements and divide that number by the total number of votes received. The winner is listed first.

IA-01
Braley: $19.65
Whalen: $26.66

IA-02
Loebsack: $4.56
Leach: $5.26

IA-03
Boswell: $17.97
Lamberti: $19.28

IA-04
Latham: $9.06
Spencer: $5.13

IA-05
King: $5.35
Schulte: $1.14
Nielsen: $18.38

I included Roy Nielsen in the results from the 5th CD because he was able to garner 5% of the vote. However, if you remove $138,000 personal loan (which presently stands at $135,500) that Nielsen provided his campaign from his expenditures, he only spent $1.75 per voter. It is also important to keep in mind that outside interest group spending, as well as party independent expenditures, are not included in these totals. In my case study of the IA-03, using all of the totals available to the FEC, I was able to calculate that the average spent per voter by Boswell, Lamberti, the DCCC, the NRCC, and other groups was about $26.64. That didn’t even include figures from the sketchy EFF mailings, TV, and radio ads that were played in the district.

Clearly, at least in Iowa, it seems that the competitive races all watched the candidate spending more per voter end up losing. In the non-competitive races (IA-04 and IA-05), the significant spending per voter undoubtedly helped yield the result that gave the districts back to Latham and King, respectively. By spending $4 more per voter in both the IA-04 and IA-05, Latham and King were able to beat their opponents by 14% and 22% respectively. One conclusion, then, is that if more money had been available to either Spencer or King, then the races could have been even more competitive. The IA-04, at least in 2006, had a very slight Democratic advantage in the PVI, meaning that in 2008 with a strong Democratic candidate, Selden Spencer holds a legitimate shot at being able to take on incumbent Tom Latham and be successful — if he gets the necessary monetary help. Not to mention the fact that he’ll have the advantage of having already been through one race against Latham.

UPDATE: Just for clarity’s sake, I used Political Money Line for the expenditure totals and the CNN Election 2006 results page for the number of votes.

Register for Yearly Kos!

Published by

Chris Woods

January 31, 2007 in Blogs and Democrats. 0 Comments

Today is the last day for discounted registration for this year’s Yearly Kos convention, being held in Chicago, IL, from August 2-5. I just paid for my registration, since I’m a student and qualify for the ‘guidelines’ of being a student. Now I just have to find the money to make sure to pay for my hotel room for my stay there. I also gave a $25 donation to the convention as a whole.

The schedule of events and speakers haven’t been announced yet, but last year’s conference was amazing. I was sad I was unable to make it all of the way to Vegas, but I’m sure lots of you know just how the college life is essentially a nice money crunch.

If you can, please sign up and attend. I’m sure there will be several (if not all of) the Democratic presidential candidates, as well as other Democratic leaders from across the nation. Best of all, we’ll be able to network with like-minded people offline and in person. It doesn’t get much better than that.

SEIU President Stern reaches out

Published by

Chris Woods

January 31, 2007 in Blogs, Caucuses, Democrats, Iowa politics and Labor. 0 Comments

SEIU President Andy Stern was over in Eastern Iowa earlier this week. I was invited, as a blogger, to sit down and meet with him but was unable to take up the opportunity thanks to classes and other meetings. However, John Deeth was able to go to the meeting with other activists and chat it up with Stern and others. You can read his report on the breakfast meeting here.

Matt Stoller of MyDD was also at the event and has been traveling with Stern. You can read and watch his interview with Stern here, as well as read another report here. I’m sorry I wasn’t able to make it because I would have loved to have had the opportunity to meet him.

In other news, they did offer me a complimentary copy of Stern’s new book, A Country that Works, that I hope to receive soon and read. I’ll probably start it after I finish Terry McAuliffe’s book What A Party!

New contribution limits

Published by

Chris Woods

January 31, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Democrats and Republicans. 1 Comment

The FEC has raised contribution limits for individuals, as of January 23, in order to keep up with inflation (as McCain-Feingold/BCRA requires):

“During the current election cycle, individuals may contribute up to $2,300 per election to Federal candidates, up to $28,500 per year to national party committees, and a combined total of up to $108,200 during the two year period to all Federal campaigns, parties, and other political committees.”

You can see the full release and table of contributions by clicking here.

Profiling legislators

Published by

Chris Woods

January 31, 2007 in Democrats, Iowa Legislature and Iowa politics. 0 Comments

Mark Langgin, over at Bleeding Heartland, is working to help set up a regular feature during the legislative session by profiling the new members of the legislature, particularly the ‘youth movement’ that emerged in 2006. His first profile is of Tyler Olson, from HD-38.

And, just for the record, Langgin does work for Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. He’s also the former campaign manager for Rep. Eric Palmer (he beat Danny Carrol down in the Grinnell area) and an all-around great guy and Democrat.

2008: Welcome Joe Biden

Published by

Chris Woods

January 31, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Biden, Caucuses, Democrats and Iowa politics. 0 Comments

Sen. Joe Biden officially announced that he is running for president today. You can visit his campaign site here.

You might have noticed on either the Bleeding Heartland event listing or my calendar here that he’ll be in Iowa, specifically in Des Moines, two weeks from this Friday. He’ll be speaking at an event open to the public hosted by the Drake Law School’s American Constitution Society. I’ll try and post more details as I know them.

And dear God, please, don’t let Joe Biden be the candidate who immediately starts attacking other Democrats. This will just go downhill fast.

Fallon for Mayor?

Published by

Chris Woods

January 30, 2007 in Democrats, Des Moines, Fallon, Ed and Iowa politics. 4 Comments

While reading this snipehunter diary over at Bleeding Heartland, I was quite fascinated to see this little tid-bit when talking about the IA-03 race in 2008:

“That gives Boswell the opportunity to tour around with all of the “rock stars,” speak to thousands of Iowans in the 3rd district almost without lifting a finger at event planning. Pretty nice deal for him. With rumors that Ed Fallon is running for Mayor of Des Moines, Boswell’s main primary competition would be Geri Huser.”

Now, I’ve known for a while that Geri Huser has been thinking about a primary challenge. And from what I’ve heard from Boswell campaign remnants and staffers, there is no way that Boswell retires/gives up the seat unless he dies or is close to death, essentially. This basically forces Huser to wait or challenge him in the primary — either way, an uncomfortable position for those who like Boswell, but want someone younger and maybe less moderate (and Huser isn’t exactly loved by certain parts of the Democratic party).

Anyway, the big story coming from that little graf is the fact that Ed Fallon is considering a run for mayor of Des Moines. To the best of my knowledge, Frank Cownie’s term as Mayor of Des Moines ends on January 1, 2008, essentially meaning that the race for mayor of Des Moines will probably launch this fall (and would be the kind of cheap, grassroots campaign Fallon is looking for). It is also a non-partisan position, even though the previous mayor (Preston Daniels) and Cownie are both Democrats, just as Fallon would be if elected.

Now, this isn’t the first time I’ve heard this rumor, but it mainly has been more a whisper I had heard that wasn’t to be repeated. Clearly, someone else is hearing the same stuff and now the rumor has made it out into the open. What do you think?

Half-staff

Published by

Chris Woods

January 30, 2007 in Culver, Chet, Iowa politics and Iraq. 0 Comments

Gov. Culver’s first executive order (issued on Saturday, Jan. 27) that called for flying all flags at half-staff until sunset today wasn’t politically motivated, contrary to the bullshit that State 29 spewed, but a legitimate expression of remorse and respect by those at the highest levels of state government for the loss of Iowa’s highest-ranking female National Guard member as well as the fact that she was the first woman to every reach that staff position in the Iowa National Guard.

Moreover, if you read the full release available on the Governor’s office website, it reads:

“This afternoon, Governor Culver signed his first Executive Order as Governor calling for flags to be flown at half staff throughout the state of Iowa to honor fallen Iowa soldiers.”

While the death of Command Sgt. Maj. Gabbard may have brought significant state attention to the deaths of Iowa Guard members serving over in Iraq, Culver’s order not only honors Gabbard but all of Iowa’s finest who have perished in Iraq.

Finally, arguing against feminism — or even simply criticizing the recognition by insinuating the act itself is anti-feminist politics — is just simply disgusting and dishonest. The facts are quite clear and simple: this is a matter of respect for a woman who broke barriers and gave her life to serve her country, even if it was an in endeavor facing clear political unrest and disagreement.

2008: The REAL McCain

Published by

Chris Woods

January 30, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Iowa politics, Iraq and Republicans. 2 Comments

Cliff Schecter and others have worked hard to put this site together, and it is definitely worth checking out. I’m sure if you read Atrios or some of the other big national liberal bloggers, you know they constantly criticize ‘Saint’ John McCain for his pandering, for his grand-standing, and for trying to appear as a maverick or moderate when he is really just your good old conservative bad guy. His position on Iraq is what has essentially and utterly tied him to this war, which for the last several years has been George W. Bush’s war and for 2008 will become John McCain’s war. Iraq is going to be one of the defining issues, if not the defining issue, for 2008 and McCain’s going to get killed with it. Krusty may think it is his way of making in-roads with Iowa conservatives but the plan will backfire, either for Iowa conservatives or for the Republican party in general because is Iraq — at least in terms of the President’s unpopular position — will be their political death come 2008.

2008: Vilsack becomes a professor

Published by

Chris Woods

January 30, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Agriculture, Democrats, Des Moines, Drake University, Energy, Iowa politics and Vilsack, Tom. 0 Comments

Here is the release from Drake on Vilsack’s newest job, and the essentials below:

“Along with Neil Hamilton, Drake’s Dwight D. Opperman distinguished professor of law, Vilsack will teach a May interim course focusing on legal issues relating to rural development and renewable energy. The course will consider policies being proposed for the 2007 Farm Bill as well as current state and USDA rural development programs.

Vilsack will give the keynote address at Drake Law School’s Supreme Court Celebration on Saturday, March 10. He will also convene a major symposium on risk and responsibility in the 21st century this spring and present a public lecture next fall.”

I had the opportunity to meet Professor Hamilton at a fundraising event last spring and he’s a very wonderful man. He helped create the agricultural law program here at Drake which has become one of the biggest and critical programs in the Drake Law School, along with our constitutional law center, which is one of only a few in the country, led by Professor Mark Kende.

The course and symposium offered by Gov. Vilsack and Professor Hamilton should be quite interesting, at least for law students. It also allows Gov. Vilsack to indulge in his wonkish tendencies and delve deep into policy, which he enjoys doing. It is times like these when I almost wish I was a law student. And then I remember the LSATs, the three years of hell, and the stigma of being a lawyer. I’ll stick to being a blogger.

Culver offers $5.7 billion budget for FY 2008

Published by

Chris Woods

January 30, 2007 in Budget, Culver, Chet, Democrats, Energy, Iowa Legislature, Iowa politics and Stem Cells. 0 Comments

Here is the introductory piece from the Register on Governor Culver’s proposed budget. You may remember that over the past couple of days, Culver has talked about parts of his budget plan, such as spending $70 million to increase teacher pay as well as invest $12.5 million to create a stem cell research center at the University of Iowa. Stem cell research was one of the big campaign promises that Culver reiterated not only during the election season but during the transition period and in his inaugural. Iowans are definitely looking for strong leadership from him on the issue, and as Geraldine over at Iowa Progress notes he is taking that leadership.

The Department of Management has the full, 128-page budget proposal here (large PDF). I’ll be reviewing it hopefully tonight a bit, as well as over the next few days, and hope to be able to answer questions that are asked as well as highlight some parts of the budget. Part of the budget also calls for an initial $25 million down payment for creation of the Iowa Power Fund, another campaign promise.

The biggest question involved in the budget outlines and the proposal is how much the cigarette tax will be raised. Culver has continued to call for a $1.00 increase, from $0.36 to $1.36. However, House and Senate Democrats have approached the increase less enthusiastically and said they are looking at something between $0.40 to $0.60 increase. If the full dollar increase doesn’t happen, then budget priorities will definitely have to be reconsidered and reworked. But as Culver spokesman Brad Anderson said, the increase is up to the legislature to decide. And if they go lower, then they will have to work with the Governor on a compromise.

Slow starts

Published by

Chris Woods

January 30, 2007 in Site stuff. 0 Comments

I’m sure you’ve noticed in the past couple of days that there have been limited posts and they’re starting later in the day. That’s because my internet connection at the frat house has been pretty sketchy, so for the most part I’m posting and staying on top of things via coming to campus and working. Hopefully the regularity of posts will resume shortly. Thanks for your patience.

2008: Talking about Hillary Clinton

Published by

Chris Woods

January 29, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Blogs, Clinton, Iowa politics and Iraq. 0 Comments

This is what Bleeding Heartland is all about: An in-depth and interactive discussion about candidates and their perceived weaknesses or strengths. Don’t get me wrong, BH will go beyond simply talking about candidates and their pluses or minuses, but this is the first step in a strong and interactive progressive community online in Iowa.

Profiling the new legislators

Published by

Chris Woods

January 26, 2007 in Democrats, Iowa Legislature, Iowa politics and Iraq. 0 Comments

I like what Chris Dorsey and the folks at IowaPolitics.com have been doing lately as they work really hard to establish themselves in Iowa’s political community. Features and reports like this, maybe with a bit more depth which additional regular reporters can offer, will surely help build the site’s reputation as well really inform Iowans about who is representing them at the statehouse.

Profiling the active military experience in Iraq — from both the Republican and Democratic perspective — and tying it into the way they will lead and govern is a fascinating look at the two. And let me just say that I hope there are more McKinley Bailey’s to come, for all of Iowa’s sake. I think he has a fantastic chance to be one of the great future leaders in Iowa’s Democratic Party.