Geraldine over at Iowa Progress is becoming one of my favorite regular posters over there and this post about Senator Clinton’s Iowa problems is definitely worth a read. What is highlighted is the fact that she, nor her husband, have ever really had to fight for Iowa. In 1992, they got to skip the state because of Harkin’s run. In 1996, Bill was the incumbent and essentially won the caucuses by default. So now, over 10 years since the last Iowa Caucus where Bill Clinton even had to show up, and in a state she hasn’t been to in three years, Hillary Clinton now has to organize an Iowa campaign without any kind of leftovers from past cycles. Thankfully for Sen. Clinton, she’s got Bonnie Campbell’s support, which can get you some organization and early support here in Iowa.
However, Geraldine still says that the position Clinton is in gives her the ability to entirely bypass the Iowa Caucuses and instead focus on New Hampshire or South Carolina. I don’t think that’s going to happen. What we’re clearly witnessing is a desire by Clinton to hold off on an announcement for as long as possible to shorten the primary season. As the frontrunner and media darling, she’s bound to get attention left and right, some of it being positive and lots probably being negative. Clinton will have to compete in Iowa because it hasn’t been locked up by anyone yet. To decide this early she isn’t competing in Iowa would likely hurt her more than help her.
I was a precinct captain for Kerry in 2003/2004 (Windsor Heights). I know a lot of people who volunteered for Kerry, Edwards, Dean or Kucinich last time around. I know absolutely no one who plans to support Clinton or has any interest in volunteering for her. Among the activists I know, the people who supported Dean or Kerry last time tend to be undecided. However, the people who supported Edwards are gung-ho for Edwards. I’ve swung to that camp myself during the past year–I think he’s got absolutely the right priorities and message.
Clinton’s triangulation leaves me stone cold. I actually think she may not run for president at all. If she runs she will certainly skip Iowa. But I doubt it will go much better for her in NH or NV or SC. I see her as this cycle’s Lieberman, who led many of the state polls in 2002 and 2003 solely because of name recognition. As soon as people saw the other candidates campaigning, they drifted away from lieberman.
I’m with the wise Desmoinesdem in the Clinton analysis. I can’t see her pulling it off, especially in Iowa. Edwards is the guy to beat in Iowa. Obama may be the only one to really able to challenge Edwards. But if the field gets very sparse (no Obama, no Clinton), Vilsack’s or some other 2nd tier candidate’s stock may rise dramatically.