2007 May archive at Political Forecast

Archive for May, 2007

Fred Thompson looks to Iowa

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May 30, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Iowa politics and Republicans. 2 Comments

I’ve got the quick hit news post up over at Iowa Independent. Check it out.

Let me elaborate a bit on Thompson’s perceived candidacy, or what I see from it:

He’s the guy on the Republican who seems like he motivates the party faithful to turn out and talk Republican politics — and do it proudly. To some degree, I suppose he could be seen in the same light that Democrats see Al Gore. But the question is his staying power.

Over the past months we’ve seen surges in support for a variety of Republican candidates from month to month. At first it was John McCain. Then Rudy Giuliani. Then Mitt Romney. And is Fred Thompson next? We’ll see. But I think it underscores just how uncomfortable many Republicans are with their crop of candidates and that the support can shift from week-to-week.

So, if Thompson does officially and loudly declare his candidacy, then he’ll be the poster boy for a good 4 weeks to the GOP and to the coverage of the Republican nomination race. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be a good candidate.

Finally, one other thing to consider. As I reported last week, Rudy Giuliani’s people still haven’t for sure decided if they’re going to compete in the Straw Poll. Thompson’s declaration could be another reason for them not to participate. Giuliani’s people reported that they’d make a decision by June 8th, so we’ll see if Thompson makes it any more official before then.

If he doesn’t, it will be interesting to see if Thompson even competes in the Straw Poll himself. With such a late start, it will be hard to get supporters to the event and to have a strong showing. However, if his popularity maintains, he could still come compete in Iowa after the Straw Poll, seeking only to win the Caucuses. What would that do to the Republican Straw Poll?

Dodd speaks out on report of potential Iraqi benchmark failures

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Chris Woods

May 29, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Dodd, Iowa politics and Iraq. 0 Comments

Presidential candidate and Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd is the first presidential candidate to speak out today on the news today that the goals set up by President Bush for the Iraqi government as part of his surge plan are likely to be missed by the end of this summer. Instead, the Bush Administration and military leaders are seeking new ways to define progress since the increase in some 20,000 troops to Iraq earlier this year.

The Los Angeles Times reported this morning:

“In September, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, is scheduled to present Congress with an assessment of progress in Iraq. Military officers in Baghdad and outside advisors working with Petraeus doubt that the three major goals set by U.S. officials for the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki will be achieved by then.

Enactment of a new law to share Iraq’s oil revenue among Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish regions is the only goal they think might be achieved in time, and even that is considered a long shot. The two other key benchmarks are provincial elections and a deal to allow more Sunni Arabs into government jobs.

With overhauls by the central government stalled and with security in Baghdad still a distant goal, Petraeus’ advisors hope to focus on smaller achievements that they see as signs of progress, including local deals among Iraq’s rival factions to establish areas of peace in some provincial cities.”

The surge strategy was criticized heavily by Congressional Democrats and has seen low approval ratings in public opinion surveys on the strategy.

Senator Dodd released this statement today:

“Today’s report that top advisors to General Petraeus do not believe that the Iraqi government will meet basic political goals set out by President Bush in conjunction with the troop surge is yet another indicator that goals and benchmarks set without real consequences will not have any effect. We need to be clear in our policy in Iraq, not only for the sake of our national security, but for the sake of the Iraqi government as well. Setting a firm and enforceable deadline for redeployment of troops is the path toward such clarity.”

Senator Dodd has been one of the leading Democrats in the Senate to establish a withdrawal date from Iraq of March 2008, and campaigned on that issue in Des Moines two weeks ago. He has begun airing ads in Iowa and New Hampshire highlighting these efforts and attributing, in part, the decisions of Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to vote for the Feingold-Reid-Dodd amendment on the Iraq Supplemental Appropriations Bill that would have established a timeline for withdrawal.

Dodd has yet to see significant gains in polling in Iowa on the Iraq issue or from the TV ads. Former Senator John Edwards and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson have both been on the air in Iowa over the last month, with Gov. Richardson seeing a significant increase in support in a recent Des Moines Register Iowa Poll. Some Iowa Democrats believe that with Dodd on the air, it is only a matter of time before he begins to see an increase in support.

On the other side of the aisle, Arizona Senator John McCain has largely been critical of the two perceived front-runners on the Democratic side — Sens. Obama and Clinton — and has been a staunch supporter of the President’s surge strategy. As of this evening, Sen. McCain nor his campaign had offered any statement on the LA Times report.

Cross-posted at Iowa Independent.

2008: Dodd to vote NO on new Iraq supplemental

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Chris Woods

May 23, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats, Dodd, Iowa politics, Iraq and TV. 0 Comments

In a day of big news on the 2008 trail (new Dodd ad, memo about Clinton campaign pondering skipping Iowa, Edwards giving a big foreign policy speech, etc), here is something worth recognizing as a standout point: Sen. Christopher Dodd is going to vote against the new Iraq supplemental funding bill, the one without a timeline for withdrawal. The video of his reasoning can be found here at the Dodd for President site and the full release from the campaign is below:

“This war has gone on longer than World War II and there is no end in sight. Yet we are less secure and more isolated than before. We have lost 3,400 patriotic Americans and shattered our standing in the world. We are spending $2 billion a week - $8 billion a month - and are now caught in the middle of a civil war. Still, this President wants more of the same and this bill would give him his wish.

I cannot and will not simply give this President another blank check.

Half-measures and equivocations are not going to change our course in Iraq. If we are serious about ending the war, Congress must stand up to this President’s failed policy now - with clarity and conviction.

As the debate on the war continues, I will continue to fight for a firm deadline that is tied to funding which will allow for a responsible redeployment of U.S. combat troops in Iraq - because that’s the only way to responsibly bring this war to a conclusion.

I hope my colleagues would do the same.”

This comes after a new ad was released this morning by his campaign, where he called out Senators Clinton and Obama — the presumed front-runners — for finally coming to his position and voting in favor of the Feingold-Reid-Dodd Amendment in the Senate. It was a big time move, and I think a good way to gain traction here in Iowa.

Both Clinton and Obama are strong in Iowa, behind the powerhouse that is John Edwards. Right behind those three is Bill Richardson, who has gained traction with his message calling on Congress to de-authorize the war in Iraq and his new ads. In the latest Iowa Poll, Dodd wasn’t gaining traction. With the ads and the strong movement against the war in Iraq and the calls for troop withdrawals by March of 2008, Dodd is putting himself firmly in the anti-Iraq war camp with Richardson and Edwards. While Obama has consistently been against the war, he can’t put himself in this camp because he’s not coming out strong for withdrawal, deauthorization, or any other kind of leadership position on the issue. Clinton is Clinton on Iraq (I’m glad she’s calling on the Pentagon to do more to prepare for withdrawal scenarios, but toeing the line just doesn’t mesh with me).

Sen. Dodd is a strong voice to end this war, particularly in the Senate. Sens. Clinton and Obama have started following his lead, but beyond Sen. Russ Feingold, he’s the only other one pushing strongly in the Senate for an end to this debacle. And he deserves credit for bring that debate into the Senate, as well as bringing it to the race by forcing Clinton and Obama to clearly take a stand. And now, as the closing part of the release shows, he’s making an issue of how Clinton and Obama are going to vote on the supplemental. And they should vote against it. Make this a Republican bill — make them own it. They’re the ones continuing this mess.

I’m staying neutral for a while, but if a candidate wants to keep convincing me they’re worthy of being the next President, then they need to start leading the charge to put an end to the Iraq war. It is that simple.

2008: Giuliani to skip Iowa?

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Chris Woods

May 23, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Iowa politics, Nussle, Jim and Republicans. 0 Comments

Ed. Note: This is an expanded version of the original quick-hit post I made for IowaIndependent.com.

Will Republican presidential candidate Rudolph Giuliani actually compete in the Iowa GOP’s Straw Poll? Over the past couple of days, speculation has emerged over whether or not the former New York City Mayor will actually compete in the Iowa GOP’s Straw Poll in August.

Yesterday, Mike Glover of the Associated Press reported on the “mixed-signals” coming from the Giuliani campaign about competing in Iowa, not just in the Straw Poll but in the January caucus as well. In response to the story, the campaign responded with comment to Mike Allen of The Politico, saying:

“It would be rather silly for us to spend the candidate’s time and campaign money on staff, office space, etc. in Iowa if we didn’t intend to play there.”

Further efforts to quell the story came from Giuliani’s Iowa campaign adviser, former Rep. Jim Nussle, who posted on the news forum of the major conservative blog Power Line. He writes, in part:

“After all the work I’ve witnessed first-hand by the campaign in Iowa, and with all the positive comments I hear from Iowans about Rudy’s strong leadership, I am encouraged by the Caucus operation that is being built from the ground up. The Mayor continues to lead in the national polls and is well-positioned to make his move in a number of the early primary states. We have work to do, but I feel confident about our positioning in Iowa and the rest of the country.”

However, the story doesn’t seem to be that simple.

Today, Kay Henderson of Radio Iowa spoke with the campaign and had this to report:

“Mark Campbell, Giuliani’s national political director, says the campaign will decide in the next 20 days whether to enter the Straw Poll ring. Campbell also dismisses media reports that Giuliani may skip competing for support in Iowa’s Caucuses and focus on the big states like Florida and California which will be having primaries shortly after Iowa.”

So, which is it?

Clearly, Iowa Republicans supporting Giuliani have cause to be concerned about whether or not he will truly compete in Iowa, or just how strongly he will compete. During his first official presidential campaign visit in April, Giuliani said he was competing to win in Iowa. Now with a weaker than expected showing in the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll — he is essentially in a statistical tie for second with Senator John McCain while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a big lead — it is becoming apparent that Giuliani is not in the position he wants to be in Iowa.

The addition of Nussle to the campaign staff as an Iowa adviser was supposed to help alleviate some of the potential organizing problems that the campaign may have faced in the state as the other Republican contenders gobbled up staff. Currently it seems like that investment isn’t paying off.

Some may argue it has to do with the big philosophical differences between the candidate and the adviser: Giuliani has been pro-choice while Nussle opposes abortion, Giuliani has also supported gay rights while Nussle favored a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

2008: Dodd to host statewide forum on Iraq War at Drake today

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Chris Woods

May 18, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Des Moines, Dodd, Drake University, Iowa politics, Iraq and Technology. 1 Comment

In case you haven’t heard about it from other places, Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut will be hosting a statewide forum that will be broadcast to a variety of locations throughout the state — as well as on the web — live from Drake University today at noon. Lynda Waddington over at Iowa Independent talks to the Dodd Campaign about the technology used in broadcasting the event and how the campaign plans to move forward with the technology; she also has a graphic listing the other satellite locations for the broadcast across the state.

I plan to attend the event and report back on it, but in case you can’t make it to the event or any of the satellite locations, below is where the video will start streaming live at noon.

2008: Richardson to visit SW Iowa this weekend

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Chris Woods

May 16, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats, Iowa politics and Richardson. 0 Comments

I’ve got the details of New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson’s impending visit to southwest Iowa this weekend over at Iowa Independent. If you’re in the area, make sure to check out the events.

HHS to get $115 million more to implement health care goals

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Chris Woods

May 14, 2007 in Budget, Culver, Chet, Democrats, Health Care, Iowa politics and Taxes. 0 Comments

The Iowa Dept. of Human Services is expected to gain an extra $115 million more come July 1st, thanks to the passage of the cigarette tax this past March in the legislature as well as the creation of a Health Care Trust Fund.

The cigarette tax legislation created the standing appropriation to the Dept. of Health and Human Services as part of an effort to began expanding insurance coverage to many Iowans, particularly low-income families and children who are not covered.

This year’s deposit to HHS is $127.6 million in sum, with $115.4 million going directly to Human Services for Medicaid purposes as well as expanding hawk-i coverage and outreach. Hawk-i covers low-income children of citizens and is designed to supplement Medicaid by covering children whose family’s income is above the Medicaid limit but below the hawk-i limit.

Governor Chet Culver campaigned on an “Insure Iowa” health care initiative while running for election in 2006. Some of the fundamental aspects of his health initiative rested on the funding to be received from the cigarette tax increase, it seems as if the full reach of the initiative was not taken up by the legislature.

As I reported last week, the cigarette tax already markedly improved state revenues in April and if the revenue increase continue at a relatively stable (or even slightly declining pace) the state will still make an additional $300 million in revenue. However, only $127 million is being dedicated to expanded health care coverage, making it hard to implement other prongs of Culver’s campaign plan. The rest of the revenue generated will go into the General Fund of the Iowa Legislature.

Some of the largest additional allocations inside HHS will go towards combatting the increasing services costs for those on Medicaid. Of the $115 million to Human Services alone, $42.48 million is allocated for increased Medicaid service costs.

On the other hand, outreach and efforts to enroll more people who are not insured is also strongly budgeted for. Over $5 million is allocated for increased enrollment to ‘independent young adults’ and ‘Medicaid-eligible children.’ In addition, $3.6 million is allocated for increased hawk-i outreach and enrollment efforts.

In an era where campaign promises never seemed to be filled, it seems like the Democratic trifecta on Capitol Hill is sure trying to start to follow-through.

Cross-posted at Iowa Independent.

2008: Dodd to begin airing TV ads in Iowa

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Chris Woods

May 14, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Democrats, Dodd, Iowa politics and TV. 1 Comment

According to Marc Ambinder at the National Journal’s Hotline On Call blog, Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT) will begin airing television ads in Iowa come tomorrow. Dodd will be joining former Senator John Edwards and Governor Bill Richardson as the two other Democratic candidates who have begun airing ads in Iowa.

There is no word yet on what the content of the ads will be, or the size of the ad buy, but I am in contact with Sen. Dodd’s campaign in Iowa to find out some more information as it becomes available. More updates soon.

Cross-posted at Iowa Independent.

Cigarette Tax Markedly Improves State Revenues in April

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Chris Woods

May 14, 2007 in Culver, Chet, Democrats, Health Care, Iowa Legislature, Iowa politics and Taxes. 0 Comments

Smokers in Iowa helped increase state revenues by over $40 million in April, according to a new report released today by the Legislative Services Agency.

During the month of April, the cigarette tax and tobacco taxes were two of the highest generators of revenue, with corporate income tax being 47.2 percent higher than in April of last year. State revenues are estimated to rise by 6.9 percent from fiscal year 2006 to fiscal year 2007 according the LSA. That is an increase of almost $340 million.

The Iowa Legislature passed the cigarette tax hike earlier this year, with Governor Chet Culver signing the bill into law on March 15. The tax increase went into effect the next day. Packs of cigarettes went from having a $0.36 tax to a $1.36 tax.

Governor Culver and Democrats in the Iowa legislature campaigned in 2006 to raise the tobacco tax as a way to reduce young people smoking and preventing unnecessary health ailments relating to tobacco. Culver says the tax will keep 40,000 young Iowans from picking up the habit. Prior to the tax increase, about 4,200 Iowans under the age of 18 would pick up the smoking habit, according to the Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids.

In a March press release, the Campaign estimated that the state would see about $153 million in new revenues for the year. If the current pace of $40 million a month keeps up, the state could see a revenue increase of over $300 million from the cigarette tax alone. However, as more people decrease their purchases because of the higher price, revenues will be expected to decline to some degree.

The money generated from the tax increase is deposited into the general fund of the state of Iowa. Beginning on July 1, 2007, a standing appropriation of $127.6 million will be deposited in a new Health Care Trust Fund.

Blogging for Iowa Independent

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Chris Woods

May 14, 2007 in Blogs, Iowa politics and Site stuff. 0 Comments

I just wanted to let those of you who didn’t already know that I’ll be blogging for Iowa Independent this summer through a position as a “fellow” at the Center for Independent Media’s New Journalist Program. Make sure to check out the disclaimer I’ve posted in the middle column, but suffice it to say that some content you’ll be reading solely here on Political Forecast while some of it you’ll be seeing in both locations. You’ll likely see more brief posts and quick reactions here, with stories and context on Iowa Independent and cross-posted here. Last week I wrote a piece on the cigarette tax revenue increases that I’ll be posting here in a few minutes. Check it out.

Meanwhile, I encourage all of you readers to head over to Iowa Independent and sign up for an account to comment and let us know your thoughts. We want to be a new voice for Iowans and help be part of the changing media landscape. And that means we need to know what you know and learn the things that you all want.

Returning

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Chris Woods

May 14, 2007 in Site stuff. 1 Comment

I’m back. Class is over for the summer and I’m focused on getting some great new content back up on the blog that I’ve left to neglect for the past several weeks. I’ll have some updates for the summer on my work, what I’ll be doing, etc, in the next few hours. For now, check out IowaIndependent.com. Great new site that I’ll be writing for over the summer, in addition to blogging.

It has been a while, but I’m back.