Political Forecast

An enterprising reader sent me an email this morning offering his explanation as to Sen. Joe Biden’s ability to rack up the endorsement of every member of the Iowa House Democratic leadership. And it makes sense. In short:

“Hillary, Edwards, and Obama all had PACs but did not focus on candidates or “Funds” for State Legislatures. They focused on members of Congress. Richardson has no PAC.

Perhaps with the fact that Biden was in Iowa last year campaigning for Iowa Democrats not just Federal Candidates but also Legislative candidates.

Could you say that Biden has cultivated relationships with the House Leadership for a long time?”

The reader went through OpenSecrets.org and provided a nice detailed listing of how Biden’s Unite Our States PAC donated several thousand dollars to Iowa House Democrats and their fund. Here are a few of the details:

House Truman Fund, Des Moines, IA $15,000 9/19/2006 Contribution
Senate Majority Fund (IA), Des Moines, IA $15,000 9/19/2006 Contribution
Senate Majority Fund (IA), Des Moines, IA $10,000 10/26/2006 Contribution
House Truman Fund, Des Moines, IA $9,000 10/26/2006 Contribution
People for Beall, Fort Dodge, IA $1,000 10/31/2006 Contribution
Committee to Elect Moritz, Davenport, IA $500 9/19/2006 Contribution
Dorris Kelly for Iowa House, Waterloo, IA $500 10/18/2006 Contribution
John Whitaker for House, Hillsboro, IA $500 10/18/2006 Contribution
Nathan Reichert for House, Muscatine, IA $500 10/18/2006 Contribution

Of the $88,000 that Biden gave to Democrats in Iowa, some $49,000 went to Democrats in the Iowa legislature. Only $3000 went to candidates directly. The $49,000 that Biden gave to the overall legislative funds let the leadership pick and choose which candidates to give that money to in hopes of building their majority–and they succeeded. The reader also offered this somewhat cynical comment after detailing the money:

“If you notice Whitaker and Kelley have already endorsed Biden. Is Sen. Beall and Rep. Reichert next?”

I suppose that might a logical conclusion, but the $500 might be pretty meager in the grand scheme of things. Whitaker raised $37,740 total. Biden’s $500 represents about 1.3% of his total raised. Kelley raised $260,326 so Biden’s $500 is even less important at .19% of her total. Sen. Beall raised $162,658, again making Biden’s $500 pretty meager. Finally, Reichert raised $208,228 which also makes Biden’s small contribution meager at best. Nothing that would make me feel “indebted” enough to endorse him.

Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd did something similar, which the enterprising reader also documented.

Iowa House Truman Fund, Des Moines, IA $5,000 9/8/2006 Non Federal Contribution
Iowa House Truman Fund, Des Moines, IA $5,000 10/23/2006 Nonfederal Contribution
Iowa Senate Majority Fund, Des Moines, IA $5,000 9/8/2006 Non Federal Contribution
Iowa Senate Majority Fund, Des Moines, IA $5,000 10/23/2006 Nonfederal Contribution

The only other non-federal account or candidate Dodd gave money to was John Mauro’s campaign for Polk County Supervisor and Denise O’Brien’s run for Secretary of Agriculture. Oh, and I guess he gave some $50k to the IDP for the voter file (which is actually VAN access, as the voter file is picked up at the Secretary of State’s office).

Now, to my knowledge, Dodd has only picked up one legislature endorsement and that was Senate President Pro-Tem Jeff Danielson, who himself is a firefighter and Dodd did receive the endorsement of the International Association of Fire Firefighters and the Iowa Fire Fighters making that less surprising.

I would surmise from this data that while making contributions to the state level from leadership and other types of PACs may be beneficial but it still doesn’t mean (or guarantee) that you’ll lock up endorsements from state legislators or other candidates. Look at the amount of support that Hillary Clinton already has from state legislators and the reader even indicates that she didn’t campaign for or give cash to them in their 2006 efforts. Props to candidates who did come into Iowa and campaign for our state reps. and other officials, and even those who financially supported their efforts.

But it seems clear that Biden isn’t necessarily just cynically “buying” endorsements from state legislators but proving he’s committed to a Democratic majority in Iowa and other states, even if he does get some kind of incentive type of effect through their support in the caucuses.

And it is important to remember that legislator endorsements don’t necessarily translate to winning, so Biden’s got a lot more work ahead of him.