2008 January archive at Political Forecast

Archive for January, 2008

Edwards rakes in the dough online

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January 7, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats, Edwards, Fundraising, Iowa politics and Technology. 1 Comment

Over the weekend I posted over at Bleeding Heartland noting an Edwards campaign press release that talked about a big increase in their online fundraising. There weren’t too many specifics in the release, and some folks were curious as to amounts. When I emailed the campaign, they were pretty mum on details and couldn’t say anything more than they were seeing success.

Today, Mike Allen at the Politico said that Edwards had raked in over $1 million since the caucuses. Some doubted it and were curious to know where the information was coming from.

Well, this afternoon we got confirmation from the campaign in a fundraising email to supporters asking for more to help for a NH GOTV effort:

“Since the Iowa caucuses, more than $1 million has poured into the campaign. Your overwhelming support for John and his message of change has kept us going — and it will keep us going through to the convention, and then on to the White House.”

For a second place finish, these are pretty strong numbers. Edwards has a considerably smaller staff across the country than either Obama or Clinton, so this money will help him keep things moving along. He’s promised to be in it until the convention and if he can still keep placing well in these early states, he can keep up decent momentum and work to make this a tough race.

And if Jerome is right the national bounce out of Iowa could be going to Edwards…

Bye-bye Duncan Hunter

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Chris Woods

January 7, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Radical Right and Republicans. 0 Comments

UPDATE (4:07 PM): Duncan Hunter was supposed to be making a big announcement this afternoon, which is what I was referring to in this post. I assumed that his major announcement was that he was going to drop out. As my lovely copy editor pointed out to me, I was completely wrong in my assumption. Big whoopsies.
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Now we can truly begin seeing the narrowing of the Republican field. I wonder who Duncan “One delegate from Wyoming” Hunter will choose to endorse and ultimately throw his delegate to?

Debate Talk Clock

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Chris Woods

January 7, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Debates, Democrats and Edwards. 0 Comments

On Saturday night I lamented the lack of the Dodd Debate Talk Clock for the Democratic debate in New Hampshire. Thanks to MSNBC we have the breakdown of time each candidate spoke as well as the number of questions posed to the candidate. At first glance, it seemed as if Edwards was being stifled a bit. In fact, Richardson got more time to talk and was allowed more questions.

How important is it to you that candidates get at least equal amounts of speaking time or questions in these debates?

My thoughts on tonight’s debate

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Chris Woods

January 5, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Debates and Democrats. 0 Comments

I offered my winners and losers of tonight’s debate over at Bleeding Heartland. Go check ‘em out and criticize me. I’m waiting.

New Hampshire Democratic Debate

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Chris Woods

January 5, 2008 in 2008 Elections and Democrats. 0 Comments

I’ll be commenting on and talking about the ABC News/Facebook/WMUR New Hampshire Democratic Debate tonight over at Bleeding Heartland. It starts in a few minutes, so head on over to BH and leave some comments (you’ve got to create an account to do so, but it is a pretty painless process).

Thank you emails

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Chris Woods

January 5, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Clinton, Democrats and Iowa politics. 0 Comments

From the random asides department: Is it telling that Sen. Clinton’s thank you email to Iowa supporters went out on today (as in this afternoon) rather than the night of or the day after the completion of the Caucuses? I got my email tonight at 5:54 PM.

Citizen journalism in Iowa

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Chris Woods

January 5, 2008 in Blogs, Democrats, Iowa politics, Media and Republicans. 1 Comment

Cross-posted at Bleeding Heartland.

Maybe I’ve missed something in my absences from blogging over the past few months, but has the Register ever really done a serious news or feature piece on Iowa’s bloggers and citizen journalists? I mean, I know we threaten their credibility and their readership by getting scoops, insight, and news out faster sometimes–not to mention that our commentary is sometimes more consistent and better written than their columnists’–but it almost seems like there is an intent to ignore the contributions that bloggers in Iowa have had both before the caucuses and in previous elections or issues. Today, in their features section, they profile one citizen journalist who has been vlogging for PurpleStates.tv (she had to audition to get the gig) and one guy who has been doing it for MTV. Don’t get me wrong, their efforts are valuable…but what about the folks who do this on their own time and don’t necessarily live off of it?

The folks at Iowa Independent have been doing regular news and political reporting since May, and other bloggers on both sides of the aisle have been part of the debate and policy discussion in Iowa politics for a few years now. Other papers across the state, as well as national papers and news magazines, have highlighted our growth and commented on our contributions.

Simply put, why can’t Iowa’s paper of record recognize or examine the Iowa online community for what it is and report back to the people of Iowa on it? I don’t want the media attention, the scrutiny, the interviews, the publicity; I just think that some of us deserve the recognition for the contributions we make. Two of my former colleagues at Iowa Independent have already talked a bit about this subject (see Chase Martyn’s initial post here and read Ben Weyl’s abbreviated response here) and I think it is one worth further discussion as we continue to build Iowa’s blogosphere.

O’Reilly out of control

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Chris Woods

January 5, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Democrats, Media, Obama and Radical Right. 0 Comments

It is times like these when you wonder why the man still has a TV show, and why couldn’t the Secret Service have shot first, asked questions second?*

*As to the second part of that statement I am, in fact, only kidding. Kind of.

DemocraticGAIN.org

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Chris Woods

January 5, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses and Democrats. 0 Comments

With the news that Gov. Bill Richarson is laying off a lot of his campaign workers, as well as the fact that both Sens. Biden and Dodd have left the race, there is likely an abundance of campaign staffers with loads of experience sitting around Iowa wondering what he or she will do next.

One website that was highlighted to me in an email is DemocraticGAIN.org. From their website:

“Democratic GAIN is a national membership association for progressive political professionals and organizations. Created in 2003, Democratic GAIN’s network of political professionals and organizations is the fastest growing in the nation. Democratic GAIN provides an infrastructure that supports and connects our members across the country through our Career Center, GAIN trainings, Professional Benefits and Networking opportunities.”

This seems like a more Democratic Party-centered version of LinkedIn and can become a valuable resource to those young staffers who are worried about the problems they might face in the future because they can’t find gainful employment right now.

From my understanding, GAIN wants to be able to compile a database of those folks working for or who have worked on primary campaigns so that when our nominee emerges there can be a centralized location of resumes and resources for the nominee’s campaign to begin looking for staff to hire across the country. This is a really cool thing that helps us Democrats actually build infrastructure and a lasting Democratic majority with experienced campaign staff.

So, if you’re a former staffer or just looking for political work, please register on the site and upload your resume. Good luck!

Edwards’ Iowa Director Gets Promoted

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Chris Woods

January 4, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats, Edwards and Iowa politics. 0 Comments

John Edwards’ Iowa Campaign Manager Jennifer O’Malley Dillon was promoted today to deputy campaign manager for John Edwards for President. Congratulations to her.

O’Malley Dillon is the wife of Iowa Gov. Chet Culver’s Chief of Staff Patrick Dillon. Before working for Edwards, O’Malley Dillon worked for Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jim Davis.

Hope beats out race in the Caucuses

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Chris Woods

January 4, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats, Iowa politics and Obama. 0 Comments

Matt Yglesias and Ezra Klein both note the importance of Barack Obama’s win in Iowa last night by emphasizing the fact that a black man just won in a state that is described as overwhelmingly white and lacking diversity.

Matt writes:

“One crucial thing Barack Obama did last night was get white people to vote for him. Lots and lots of white people. Iowa’s not the kind of place where you can dominate the black vote, plus add on a sliver of white liberals and win a primary. To win — even in a primary — you need the support of white people.

And one thing holding Obama back among both black and white voters has been, I think, a fear that other people won’t be willing to vote for a black guy. Winning a primary does a lot to dispel those worries.”

And Ezra writes:

“And atop it all, Barack Obama won. A black man just won the Iowa caucus. And he won not because of his race, nor in spite of it; not because of the novelty of his campaign, nor because of its historic import. He won because a broad swath of Americans found him to be the most inspiring, the most elevating, the most attractive of the candidates. He won because so many Iowans felt their heart quicken before his words that they smashed all turnout records in order to add their voice to his. It’s a remarkable night. Not just for Obama, or for Democrats, or for political junkies. For the country.”

This isn’t to say that racial discussions aren’t still necessary in this country and this state, they most definitely are. Just look to Common Iowan’s blog for an example.

Throughout this race people have asked if America is ready for a black man to be president. If this many Iowans–Democrats, Republicans, and independents–can come together for Barack Obama it sure seems like America can handle him. We aren’t just white folk loving white folk in Iowa. We’re tolerant, and we’re diverse in our own way. And through the caucus process the candidates were grilled. We listened to their rhetoric, their policies, their stump speeches, and their closing arguments. Change and unity were the themes that seemed to resonate the most. Hope for an America that can not only look beyond the things that divide us, but, if ever so subtly, look beyond race.

Now, if only Iowans could truly look past gender and elect a female governor, congresswoman, or senator. Then we’d really destroy what’s left of any glass ceiling we might have.

They got it right

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Chris Woods

January 4, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats and Iowa politics. 0 Comments

Props to my former colleagues at Iowa Independent for getting the top three positions right with their last power rankings. They predicted an Obama win with Clinton and Edwards essentially tied for second place. While Edwards has enough of a lead for second, it’s small. Basically the final results were:

Obama: 37.6%
Edwards: 29.8%
Clinton: 29.5%

Good job.

Winners and losers

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Chris Woods

January 4, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Iowa politics, Radical Right and Republicans. 0 Comments

From Todd Dorman this morning on his blog in his discussion of “losers” from last night’s caucuses:

“Republicans — Could this party be any more screwed up right now? Huckabee was a great caucus candidate, but he could be a general election disaster, especially if Obama wins. Romney and Giuliani are fading fast. (Did you notice Ron Paul had three times as much Iowa support as Rudy?) Thompson is sleepwalking. The GOP’s best hope may be McCain. He’s a likeable, solid candidate who could have general election appeal, especially among independents. His strength, experience, could be contrasted with Obama’s weakness.”

I still don’t think that McCain is the kind of savior the GOP needs, but Dorman’s right about the Republican party. They’ve got some major issues to face. They’ve been able to hold on to this coalition of social conservatives and fiscal conservatives–with views that oftentimes conflict or pull the party in opposite directions–in presidential races for a long time. In fact, one of my political science professors at Drake and KCCI political analyst Dennis Goldford calls this group the “Republican presidential coalition.” And as Jeff Greenfield mentioned on CBS last night, the party is doomed if either Huckabee or Giuliani end up with the nod simply because of how divisive they can be for the party.

Republicans have a lot to be proud of in last night’s turnout, but they didn’t have nearly enough to compete with Democrats. As Markos pointed out here, last night’s total turnout was around 356,000. If you consider the entire voting universe for both Democrats and Republicans, Mike Huckabee (last night’s Republican winner) still came in fourth behind Obama, Edwards, and Clinton.

Iowa Caucus Results Thread

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Chris Woods

January 3, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats and Iowa politics. 0 Comments

You can talk about the results here on Bleeding Heartland. Or you can talk about them here. Whatever trips your trigger.

I’m amazed. I’ll have a lot of thoughts tomorrow. But wow, record turnout of Democrats and independents. The youth vote showed up. Iowans showed up, on both sides of the aisle.

More to come…