Political Forecast

Chris requested that I share the following political tale with y’all, though in the interests of my pretend objectivity, I will attempt to make it as observational as possible. Here goes.

Last Friday, the Iowa Republican Party and Sen. Grassley sponsored an event on social security featuring William Shipman of the Cato Institute as speaker. In the interests of my political education, I went with a friend of mine in a position at the party to get these kinds of invitations. He is 18, I am 8 months shy of it and on a Friday night, we’re going to a social security event. Oh, and its snowing. I know, we’re real cool cats.

The event is at the Point of Grace church in Waukee. As you might imagine, an overtly political event at a church is the first source of my wariness. I would argue that God has little interest on either side of the debate, but hey, I’m just crazy like that. At any rate, the e-mail mentions the venue can seat about 900 people and those seats are avaliable on a first-come, first-serve basis. And my, did they ever speak too soon. My friend and I are perhaps two of about 30, and with the exception of a few Drake Republicans and a young couple in their mid-20s sitting beside me, the only two people not political candidates, their staffers or of an age to currently be on social security. Second little bit of warriness - - the elephants really haven’t hit the key demographic for the issue here.

So I am sitting in essentially the middle of this auditorium. Above and to my left is the very respectable former governor of this state Robert Ray and his wife. On the other side are state candidates for Secretaries of Agriculture and State with staffers. And on my immediate right is this young couple. As staffers were handing out literature, the husband said something to the effect of “Personal retirement accounts … that’s what we’re here for” as if the event was indeed designed to hand them out. Below me and to the far left was a cadre of college students, among them was a young lady I believe is Sarah Mayberry. There are times when I know I am the more politically conservative member of a group of people. There are times when the tables are turned. The latter are often far more obvious.

Shipman’s opening act is the rabelrouser of the Iowa 05 Steve King. I have, admittedly, very little experience with or opinion on the congressman, other than my elementary understanding of engineering from childhood toys which suggests a giant wall along a river is a bad idea. The major highlight of the Congressman’s speech was a physical copy of one of the many bonds the government issues itself to fund social security, one that was sitting in a file cabinet in West Virginia, apparently. He defers to Shipman as a “world expert”, as does everybody else in the room.

Shipman speaks. He is not, by any means, bad. However, he is speaking to an audience who all believe, including myself (yes, I know, I’m bracing myself for the comments) that the system is probably unsoluable and that some sort of reform somehow is necessary. The Cato package, I note, is decidedly different from the Bush package in that it calls for 5% of income in very diverse market funds of thousands of stocks and bonds administered by a supposedly independent broker. The problem here is that, outside of an audience which has made up its mind, the arguments would never fly. The social security debate has been dominated by two sides throwing numbers at each other, and that’s why the public never caught onto it. Shipman doesn’t feel the need to extend that bridge to the public, doesn’t seem to even want to argue outside of the economics, and completely blows off my question. About an hour and a half later, my friend and I walk out.

Here’s the kicker, and anybody involved in party politics better listen right here: I never got the sales pitch. In a very small audience of people, when it was obvious I had an above average interest in politics (it’s Friday night, after all), I was only handed one flyer: for a $50/plate fundraising dinner featuring Steve Forbes. No petitions, no forms for more information on the party, no conversations with either one of the candidates in the room, nothing. Its as if the party didn’t want to aknowledge that 18-year-olds exist. It will be hard for me, sitting in DC filling out my absentee ballot in late October without previous voting affiliation, to forget how the party essentially ignored me. A clear opportunity to get the young energy they need, and they failed. The event was little more than backpatting for party operatives.

On the way home, I wonder why no high school student groups and only a few college students bothered to show up, when the issue of social security is supposed to be most critical to the young. I wonder why the only politician, big or small, to come through my high school in the last four years was Dennis Kucinich. And I wonder if either party in its current form can exist forty years from now with this kind of non-strategy.