The short answer to the simple question is: No.
We’ve all seen the variety of different Caucus 2008 polls appearing now that the 2006 cycle has just barely gone by and pollsters are getting back to work so they can pay their bills. So far, there have been at least three Iowa-centric or specific polls that have been released since the November elections (and the one from this summer by the Register). The first was a poll taken in October by an environmental group and then released about two weeks ago. Last week, KCCI released a poll. And yesterday, the American Research Group (ARG) released another. What do they all say?
Not a whole hell of a lot. If anything, all you can do is break some of the candidates into tiers, at least in Iowa. The top tier candidates, using averages from all of the Iowa polls on 2008, are decided by being in double-digit numbers when the four polls are averaged. They are:
- Hillary Clinton (2)
- John Edwards (1)
- Barack Obama (3)
- Tom Vilsack (4)
That’s in alphabetical order, and the number in parentheses is their average over the four polls so far (and is essentially unscientific).
The second tier is any candidate who “averages” 5-9 percentage points. They are:
- Al Gore
- John Kerry
- Undecided/Other
In this tier you see the inherent problem with trying to average polls over a 6 month period of time, particularly as certain candidates are added or subtracted from the polls.
The third tier is full of those with 4% or less support in Iowa. Coincidently enough, they also include the candidates who have decided not to run so far, as they have probably only been in one poll and/or recognized that this year wasn’t their year. They are:
- Evan Bayh*
- Joe Biden
- Wesley Clark
- Tom Daschle*
- Chris Dodd
- Russ Feingold*
- Mike Gravel
- Dennis Kucinich
- Bill Richardson
- Mark Warner*
The *s mean the candidate has officially said they will not be seeking the 2008 Democratic nomination for president. If Biden, Dodd, or Richardson are really seriously considering getting into the race and wanting a legitimate shot at winning Iowa, they need to get in the race and declare quite soon. Otherwise, Iowa might be dominated early on by three or four candidates who are well-known — particularly two with significant financial advantages or means to raise more money.
However, even though I have gone through all the trouble of putting together tiers like this based on some kind of pseudo-analytical or scientific method of averages from polls, I think the tier system based simply on polls in Iowa are worthless this early. This summer and fall will be the hardcore campaigning days and Iowans are going to be inundated with presidential visits. In terms of activist support across the state, the clearly visible winner is John Edwards, with Tom Vilsack probably a good second. If Obama jumps into the race, I’d immediately expect him to surpass Vilsack but I don’t know if that will be a short-lived honeymoon with activists or a long-term commitment. Time will tell us on that one.
However, it is still early and it will take a lot for some of the newer candidates to establish themselves. The opportunities and communities for them to do so are out there, though, and they should begin to take advantage of them. The dynamics of this race are truly yet to be seen, no matter what the media prognosticators and pundits might tell you. The polls shouldn’t tell you a whole lot, either, as they are fluctuating so much right now, as Drew notes.
And if you need some really, really good reasons why to note that the caucuses are still wide open at this point, go read Chase’s post over Iowa Progress. The man says things a bit more eloquently than I do and more cohesively (as I think I might have written the different points he makes in a variety of different posts). His first, and I think, most important point is this:
“The caucuses are an expectations game above all else. Given two candidates with equal money, talent, charisma, etc., the candidate who is favored more heavily is actually in a weaker position right now than the candidate nobody is talking about. To “win” the caucuses, you have to beat expectations, not just the other candidates, and the job gets harder and harder as expectations get higher and higher.”
Word.
And don’t forget just how important money is to the survival game as well. Iowa might not be a bastion for fundraising (until the grassroots and netroots get tapped here for money like they do across the rest of the country) but right now to stay in the caucus game you have stay in the money. Since a month ago when Vilsack officially announced, he’s raised around a million dollars. In the 24-36 hours since Edwards has announced, he’s raised over $200,000 simply online. Talk amongst yourselves.