Archive for the 'Yepsen, David' Category

Ego trip

What the hell is this? Does the Washington Post really need to profile David Yepsen? To me this just reeks of more insider coverage on people who really don’t matter in the actual caucus process anymore. David Yepsen doesn’t report on the caucuses so much anymore, he just judges candidates.

And he bashes candidates for encouraging youth participation in the caucuses. And he thought that Howard Dean would win in 2004. And a multitude of other things that put him out of touch with actual Iowans on terms of policy and politics.

Listen, I respect David Yepsen for his contributions to Iowa politics. But he isn’t the kind of kingmaker folks think he is. People shouldn’t have to win over his favor. He doesn’t caucus, ordinary Iowans do.

Most Iowans I know don’t like his column; they just use it as fodder to disagree and argue politically. And I’m sorry, but bloggers and other reporters shouldn’t indulge his ego.

Enough of this. Let the Iowans decide.

NYTimes Editorial Board On Student Voting

Kudos to the New York Times for emphasizing the importance of student voting in primaries and caucuses:

“Hammered by student groups, the candidates have reframed their statements. But the episode has left a bad taste in the mouths of many students and of the groups that have been working feverishly to bring more of them into the electoral process. Anything that undermines student voting is bad for politics and bad for the nation.”

But I think they missed the point in blaming the campaigns and candidates solely for the whole “students from outside Iowa shouldn’t vote in the caucuses” fiasco. While some of the discussion comes from that arena, pundits like David Yepsen are to blame for fueling the fire with his anti-Obama pieces and his distaste or distrust for the youth in Iowa.

I can picture him now yelling out his Register office window and shaking his fist: “Damn kids, get out of my caucuses!”

Matt Whitaker: Just another partisan US Attorney?

The US Attorney controversy surrounding Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, the Department of Justice, and the Bush Administration will undoubtedly get more interesting as time goes on. Sen. Charles Grassley can’t be the only Republican out there who is becoming frustrated by this president’s executive power grab and the more that’s revealed, the more we know that the White House and AG Gonzales worked together in their efforts to force out 8 US Attorneys. Liberal Oasis has a good primer on the controversy here. But what is the Iowa impact?

Well, beyond Sen. Grassley’s vote to authorize subpoenas in the Congressional investigation, it is worth considering US Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa Matt Whitaker and how he plays into or is involved in the whole issue. While it is unquestionable that Whitaker and his staff in Iowa have done some exemplary work (see the CIETC Scandal for an example), one has to wonder how his partisanship plays in his day job. This has become particularly true in recent weeks because of the indictment of State Senator Matt McCoy on charges of extortion. David Yepsen has taken a look at the matter in his usual way and Chase Martyn of Iowa Progress skims the surface of the issue of Whitaker’s investigation and work here. I plan on taking it a bit further.

Just who is Matt Whitaker? He’s a graduate of the University of Iowa and former football player there. He has his JD and MBA as well. In 2002, he ran against incumbent Democrat Michael Fitzgerald for the position of State Treasurer as the Republican candidate. He lost, garnering 43% of the vote while Fitzgerald had 55%. Contribution information and disclosure forms from the 2002 Elections aren’t available on the IECDB website, but can be requested via email. I’m sure if I were to request a copy of the files, I’d see a bevy of social conservative donors. In early February 2004, Bush nominated Whitaker to the position of US Attorney and he won Senate confirmation in June of 2004.

How partisan is Whitaker? Well, he’s quite the Republican. He’s a social conservative and supportive of the Iowa Christian Alliance (formerly the Iowa Christian Coalition but has since broken off because of the Christian Coalition’s work with Move On — for net neutrality stuff — and other issues). He was to be the emcee at their spring 2007 kickoff event, as noted here on their website, but at the last minute the DOJ told him he couldn’t go as the emcee but had to simply attend. The Associated Press published a story in the Register [available via NewsBank] on his involvement in the event on February 28, noting that the group Americans United for the Separation of Church and State had objected to his role in the event. Traditionally, US Attorneys, while political appointees, have remained largely nonpartisan in their activities outside of the workplace as to avoid the appearance of impropriety or an imposed partisanship on the job. Clearly, by choosing to attend the event Whitaker was upsetting that tradition, to some degree. Even Ted Sporer, Chair of the Polk County Republican Party, wrote on his blog that Whitaker was in attendance at the event, which drew only Republicans.

Why is Whitaker’s partisanship bad? Well, in this case, I’ll let David Yepsen explain:

“Third, Whitaker is a Republican. And not just any Republican, but a socially conservative one who ran unsuccessfully for state treasurer in 2002 and could well be a candidate for office again.

He recently was in the news when he was scheduled to emcee an event for the Iowa Christian Alliance, a successor group to the Iowa Christian Coalition.

After first granting him permission to host the event, Whitaker said the Justice Department revoked it after objections from liberal groups. Instead, he just attended the meeting.

Active involvement in ideological political action groups like that is rare for U.S. attorneys in Iowa — and even the Justice Department higher-ups seemed to think better of it. For good reason. McCoy is a Democrat. And not just any Democrat but an openly gay one.

So we now have the specter of a politically ambitious, evangelical Republican with ties to the religious right going after a gay Democrat.”

Yepsen recommends that Whitaker step aside and let career prosecutors handle the case because of the possible conflicts of interest, or even the appearance of a conflict. Finally, Yepsen offers some wise advice.

Just how partisan are US Attorneys becoming? Well, McClatchy Newspapers has an amazing story on just how political and partisan the attorneys have become in recent years, thanks to Bush Administration efforts. Here is just a tid-bit:

“Since 2005, McClatchy Newspapers has found, Bush has appointed at least three U.S. attorneys who had worked in the Justice Department’s civil rights division when it was rolling back longstanding voting-rights policies aimed at protecting predominantly poor, minority voters.

[…] Taken together, critics say, the replacement of the U.S. attorneys, the voter-fraud campaign and the changes in Justice Department voting rights policies suggest that the Bush administration may have been using its law enforcement powers for partisan political purposes.

The Bush administration’s emphasis on voter fraud is drawing scrutiny from the Democratic Congress, which has begun investigating the firings of eight U.S. attorneys - two of whom say that their ousters may have been prompted by the Bush administration’s dissatisfaction with their investigations of alleged Democratic voter fraud.

Bush has said he’s heard complaints from Republicans about some U.S. attorneys’ “lack of vigorous prosecution of election fraud cases,” and administration e-mails have shown that Rove and other White House officials were involved in the dismissals and in selecting a Rove aide to replace one of the U.S. attorneys. Nonetheless, Bush has refused to permit congressional investigators to question Rove and others under oath.

[…] A third former civil rights division employee, Matt Dummermuth, 33, was nominated to be U.S. attorney in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, last December. Before his appointment, he was counsel to the assistant attorney general for civil rights. He was a special assistant to the civil rights chief from 2002 to 2004.

Details of his involvement in reviewing voter rights couldn’t be determined, and Dummermuth, a Harvard Law School graduate, didn’t return calls seeking comment.

Bush administration officials have said that no single reason led to the firings of the eight U.S. attorneys. But two of those who were forced to resign said they thought they might have been punished for failing to prosecute Democrats prior to the 2006 congressional elections or for not vigorously pursuing Republican allegations of voter irregularities in Washington state and New Mexico.

Former U.S. Attorney David Iglesias of New Mexico has said he thought that “the voter fraud issue was the foundation” for his firing and that complaints about his failure to pursue corruption matters involving Democrats were “the icing on the cake.”"

Clearly, partisanship and ulterior motives have begun to become the emphasis in the selection of US Attorneys and efforts to find some kind of documented voter fraud by the federal government has become the news means for Republicans to find a way to disenfranchise American voters. Read the full story from McClatchy for the full grasp of the situation.

Clearly, Whitaker’s partisanship could become an issue in this case and will likely lead to more criticism from those observing the process. Now, don’t get me wrong, I want to investigate this matter thoroughly. I just don’t want it to be a partisan effort to bring down Democrats. And Whitaker’s role in these cases — because of his active Republican party involvement — complicates the matter so much. The Polk County Democratic Party passed a resolution on Wednesday stating their support for Sen. Matt McCoy as well as noting the partisanship of the Justice Department. You can find the full release and resolution below the fold.

And one more thing to keep in mind: If allegations of voter fraud and other electoral issues are becoming the focal point of selecting US Attorneys, as it seems to be the case even with the Northern District of Iowa’s Matt Dummermuth, then Iowans should be on the lookout for investigations in other parts of Iowa, particularly with Election Day registration passing in the House and likely becoming law, should it pass the Senate. Maybe this Matt is just as partisan as the Matt from the Southern District.
Continue reading ‘Matt Whitaker: Just another partisan US Attorney?’

Iowa and ‘Fair Share’

As I have noted before, Republican leader Chris Rants in the Iowa House has made it his and the Republican crusade to rail against Democratic efforts to reform Iowa’s labor laws, including the so-called ‘right-to-work’ law. This legislative session, the issue is going to generate a lot of contentious debate. And so far, the biggest Republican talking point against it is “Democrats didn’t campaign on it.” Sorry, but they’re going to have to do a hell of lot more than that to oppose something that would allow Iowans to change the nature of collective bargaining agreements with their employers that include fair share as an option.

As Chase noted over at Iowa Progress, Republicans and/or big business in the state have already launched a push-polling effort against ‘fair share.’ It also affects the impact that polls might have on the issue, as David Yepsen tried to argue this week that Democrats would be risking control of the legislature in 2008 if they repealed the current statute (which they aren’t trying to do). Yepsen tries to assert that Democrats and labor bickering in Iowa has caused Democrats to be out of power for so long in this state — and when we are in power for it to be short periods of time. That is a flat out assertion and just not true. There are other fundamental demographic and political reasons more than just labor not being able to work well with Democrats. To assert so is just stupid.

Just what is ‘fair share’? The Teamsters have put together a fantastic post on supporting Fair Share in Iowa in this diary over at Daily Kos. This argument seems like one of the best to me:

“Under 60-year-old right-to-work (for less) laws, unions must represent all members of a bargaining unit equally regardless of if they are members of the union or not. This means that nonmembers, who do not pay union dues, must receive the same union benefits as their dues-paying counterparts. Failing to provide equal services and representation would land the union in federal court where they could be fined, sued, etc.

Is that fair?

Of course not, and it’s shamelessly hypocritical. What do you think the Chamber of Commerce’s response would be if employers were required to give something for nothing – say, like health care, or a pension? They’d go nuts!”

Iowa Republicans are notoriously anti-union and they’ll be fighting hard against the fair share legislation. You can find Senate Study Bill 1120 here which would change Iowa’s current statute if passed, but not actually repeal the right to work. The bill is currently proposed as a Committee on Labor and Business Relations issue that would be guided by Sen. Dick Dearden. We’ll see where it goes. However, there is already a significant amount of lobbying going on behind the scenes by both those in favor and those opposed to fair share. Yepsen’s column was the first real coverage of the debate that Register has given the issue and I seriously hope they commit more resources to the debate in the future because it is going to be of considerable interest to Iowans.

In essence, fair share is compromise that maintains Iowa’s current right to work law but changes the nature of collective bargaining so as to allow for expanded options and to end the freerider problem that is killing unions and labor as an organization in America.

Admittedly, I do have to give Republicans kudos for actually standing up for their crazy platform this time by opposing changing the current right to work laws (unlike the bad Republicans who voted for a minimum wage hike, particularly when their own platform doesn’t even support a government-mandated minimum wage in the first place!).

Surviving Yepsen

Sometimes, it takes a lot out of me to even come up with a post that mainly is criticizing points that David Yepsen has made in his regular column in the Register. Drew and I have both taken Yepsen to task multiple times always in seriousness. Now we have the alternative satire blog Surviving Yepsen by TM Lindsey. You may remember him from such blogs as Nussle and Flow and Political Fallout. Anyway, go check out his blog. Hopefully it will remain just as funny down the road.

“Two years late”

I don’t remember the exact date when David Yepsen finally realized that he was on the wrong side of the Iraq War equation and began to realize just how bad the situation was, but he’s emerged from the dark side now and at least deserves to be removed of the “idiot” moniker with regards to things dealing with Iraq. In his post entitled “Bushed” on his Register blog tonight, he writes:

“President Bush gave a good speech Wednesday night. The only problem is it comes about two years late.

Americans are tired of this war. Bone tired. This latest Iraq strategy most likely assures a Democrat will win the White House in 2008.”

He gives a small hint to a profile in courage scenario, but that isn’t going to happen. Bush is committed to losing and killing more American men and women, whether he recognizes it as such or not. In the long-run, it may be politically beneficial to the Democrats, but that is the least of my concerns and it should be the least of the concerns of the party. I’d much rather see this war end and watch a Republican be elected in 2008 than watch the war continue and see Democrats win the presidency.

Iowa Press recap

I only caught the last 5 minutes or so of Iowa Press when it aired tonight, but I was surprised to find out that IPTV.org is now carrying video of their programs online after they’ve aired. I just finished up watching the Reporter’s Roundtable edition for the final episode of 2006 and was pleasantly surprised by what I heard.

In terms of the governor’s race, the biggest thing that I garnered from their discussion was David Yepsen’s mentioning of how just how much Jim Nussle’s divorce hurt him — even though it wasn’t talked about. Yepsen said it had an impact and there was a kind of whisper campaign with it. You could almost see and feel the other reporters flinching at Yepsen’s mention of it and then they went into more discussion about it. The short and sweet of the issue is this: Nussle couldn’t respond to Culver’s ads with Mari and the kids because the minute he brought his family into the equation he would have to deal with divorce questions and issues.

I think we also got a true taste of Yepsen’s dislike for Iowa City when the Board of Regents fiasco was mentioned. Yepsen said, and I quote from the transcript:

“People in Iowa City are always upset about something, and this will cool off.”

Somehow, I don’t think that is the case. Kay Henderson did mention that Culver told her this week that he will appoint four new regents in his first 90 days in office — but Yepsen did retort worthily that they wouldn’t be able to take their seats until April 1st.

Finally, they talked about their rising and falling stars of 2006. Most of the focus was on the Democrats because it was their year of success. Their rising stars included Kevin McCarthy (Democratic Majority Leader in the House), Representative Tom Courtney, Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal (I’m beginning to think that David Yepsen has the hots for him or something the way he talks about him), and Congressman David Loebsack.

When it came to falling stars, they mentioned former speaker of the house and now Republican Minority Leader in the House Christopher Rants. They’re speculating that he isn’t going to like not being in power (duh) and is basically falling on the sword for the House Republican election failures. They don’t expect him to be around much longer.

The other falling star was mentioned by Kay Henderson, and it was kind of a positive falling star for Democrats: Leonard Boswell. She seemed to think that since Boswell has kind of been a training ground for political success in Iowa and beyond that folks like John Norris, Patrick Dillon, and others who have worked with him can encourage him to retire and allow a new Democrat to come in and fill his spot, particularly since he’s older, won’t have a committee chairmanship, and has had health issues.

Anyway, I encourage you all to watch the video and leave your thoughts.

2008: My thoughts on Vilsack’s announcement speech

You can watch Tom Vilsack talk about the speech itself here on his campaign videoblog. And you can read the full text of his remarks here — and I’m sure there will be some kind of video coverage of the speech on the campaign blog soon. The Register already has some video of the speech here.

Anyway, to my thoughts on the speech. In the 20 minute or so speech, it was interrupted by applause and chants at least 13 times, from my count. I think that pretty much says that the introductory location was a good choice with lots of loud and enthusiastic supporters. The message itself a strong and positive one that coincided with the theme of the announcement tour: the American people need a leader with the courage to embrace change and be challenged to do so, and Tom Vilsack is that man.

When comparing the prepared remarks to the actual statements Vilsack made, you can tell he got a bit extemporaneous. But that was a good thing. He put emotion and feeling into his extemporaneous remarks and added accomplishments and details, things that seemed to be lacking in the prepared text. It also proves that he can still pump out a coherent and cohesive message in a stump speech without changing the meaning of it. Being able to act on your toes like that is a sure sign of a strong politician.

Kay Henderson’s piece about the speech at Radio Iowa probably sums up the speech best in a non-partisan way. It was a very telling and emotional speech that connected with the audience and proved just how much change, community, and opportunity will be used as themes in Vilsack’s campaign.

David Yepsen tries to offer up some analysis in his usual pundit style — by reading prepared remarks and not even embarking to Mt. Pleasant to actually attend the announcement. Instead, he sits in his office in Des Moines and writes a blog post saying Vilsack blew the announcement by not talking about Iraq. The truth is, Vilsack didn’t blow anything. He made the announcement speech and tour what it needed to be — an introduction to the voters across the state and this country about who he is and what his message will be. Talking about Iraq is just one position, while an important, but shouldn’t be the focal point of an announcement. And the fact is, this line from Vilsack’s remarks got the loudest applause and ovation of anything besides the declaration of candidacy:

“Together, with the courage to create change let us embrace a new foreign policy that renews friendships, develops alliances and isolates enemies. In Iraq, we must act, take our troops out of harm’s way and allow Iraqis to begin providing their own security.”

To my knowledge, that’s one of the clearest positions that Vilsack has taken on Iraq lately. And while still clearly vague, it does emphasize a role he sees for troop redeployment or withdrawal and a fundamental overhaul of the current ’stay-the-course’ strategy that only furthers and worsens the civil war that is taking place in Iraq. Today was a day about offering answering questions like ‘Who is Tom Vilsack?’ or ‘Why are you running?’ or ‘What is your message?’ not answers to questions like the specifics of your plan for Iraq. David Yepsen knows that, he’s just trying to be a bully and get an answer from Vilsack on the policy. The truth is, looking to any candidate for real specifics is ridiculous right now. But broad themes and suggestions on how they’ll follow through with their ideas, now that’s what folks should be looking for.

Look, it was a good announcement and the crowd in Iowa responded. Now it is up to the response across the country. And that’s what the coming days will show. And if you’re interested, here is Chris Cillizza’s take on the case for Vilsack’s candidacy.

A dream come true: Democrats make history

Unlike some other Iowa bloggers, I thought I was dreaming last night. And then I woke up, and it was indeed a dream came true. As Secretary of State Chet Culver said on Monday, Iowans had the ability to make histoyr yesterday. And Governor-Elect Culver reiterated that last night as the Democrats swept the governorship, the state senate, and the state house. Democrats accomplished the trifecta in Iowa — we took it all. There hasn’t been a Democratic movement in this state like this since 1964 and LBJ. According to the Register, the Democrats control the Iowa House at 54 - 45 and control the Iowa Senate at 30 - 20. Those are overwhelming margins.

Where do we go from here? Well, first of all, we have to thank our amazing slate of candidates throughout the state who helped get the job done. Without their hardwork, this could’ve been just a mediocre year where Democrats hold steady thanks to a strong national wind. And we also have to thank their staff. I’ve been fortunate enough to volunteer and help out with some amazing Culver staffers and Iowa Democratic Party staffers as we worked together to make this state a deep blue once again.

Should we boast? Of course we should, but not for long and not extravagantly. We won, plain and simple. But as Governor-Elect Culver said last night, we have to lock arms and produce ‘One Iowa’ and lead this state in a combined effort to make it great for everyone. We have ideas and plans with which we need to follow through, and we can do that.

How did Democrats win? Well, it was clear that we did the far superior job on turnout across this state. The much-acclaimed Republican 72-hour program was nothing compared to a comprehensive field plan launched by the IDP Field staff to target drop-off Democrats and those who sincerely needed absentees to vote whether it was for physical reasons or they just were irregular voters. Throughout the run-up to election day, many conservatives as well as Iowa pundits had been lamenting the absentee ballot strategy of Iowa Democrats saying that it wasn’t living up to the 2002 results. The fact was, we were doing something different. David Yepsen couldn’t realize what we were doing but now myself and others who had faith in the program have been vindicated, which is always a sweet feeling. From my counting, Culver won 59 of Iowa’s 99 counties. That is quite impressive.

Just how Democratic is Iowa now? I think Democrats made significant gains in this election, but we also made gains among the Democrats in Iowa who have been less than enthusiastic. Iowa’s Congressional delegation is now 4 Democrats and 3 Republicans — a distinct advantage and one that I hope will have a significant impact on policy in Washington DC. Congressmen Boswell, Braley, and Loebsack will lead this state well, along with Senator Tom Harkin. Building off of Senator Harkin’s past anecdotes, it sure seems like they’re going to need a bigger office for meetings come January with the 110th Congress convenes.

How did we bloggers do? Well, no matter what side of the aisle you were on, your opinions, posts, and comments mattered. We aren’t the news, but we sure help make it happen. We influence those who make the news and we put the stories out there for debate. Where else could you hear or read serious dicussion about the Iowa rainforest project — particularly after Culver and Judge did the ad criticizing the $50 million in federal money for it? You heard the discussion the blogs. How and why did anyone start paying attention to the Leach-Loebsack race? The blogs, the netroots, Iowans online. The only reason that Dave Loebsack was ever able to debate Jim Leach in front of a statewide audience on IPTV’s Iowa Press is because of the large email campaign the Iowa Rapid Response team was able to launch at IPTV. I know that people in the traditional Iowa media read us and follow what we say and report — people like Kay Henderson of Radio Iowa, Todd Dorman of Lee Enterprises, Charlotte Eby, and Dave Price of WHO-TV. Three of those four even have blogs themselves, recognizing just how much more of an outlet it gives them to tell their stories and report back to their readers.

The democratic process won yesterday and that resulted in a Democratic takeover — not just here in Iowa, but across the nation. Democrats now control a majority of legislative chambers at the state level, control a majority of governorships, control the US House, and control the US Senate. Is this a Democratic mandate? Possibly, and I think particularly at the state level it is the case. At the national level, it is clearly a mandate for change, a change that Democrats provide.

Together we prepared, we planned, we strategized, we worked, and we won. Now is our chance to lead. There have been a large number of young Democrats involved in this process as well and by winning now, we have help create a Democratic youth legacy — through newly elected members of the state house but also through a lively and young group of campaign staffers who have had an amazing campaign and will be the future of politics in this state.

Thank you to all of you for your help. Leave your thoughts and reflections on the race in the comments.

Election 2006: 95% of absentee ballots are in

Yepsen reports that 95% of all absentee ballots requested have been turned in. He’s been bad-mouthing the Dems absentee strategy since he found out about it. This is great news for Dems. Advantage us.

IA-Gov: Looking at the new polling numbers in detail

I’m not going to be like Krusty and bash the numbers. But I will say this: the numbers look fantastic for Culver. Let’s wade into details — here’s the more in-depth Register story.

Let’s look at the demographics. I’ll be pulling this information from the sidebar of the Register story:

  • Among Democrats, Culver has 91% of their vote while Nussle has 90% of the Republican vote — that is to be expected.
  • What is most stunning is Culver’s growth by leaps and bounds in the number of independent voters swinging to his side. In last month’s Iowa Poll, Culver lead among independents 43 - 33, with 24% still undecided. Culver currently leads Nussle in independents 55 - 37, an 18 point lead. Only 8% of independents have yet to make up their mind or are voting for someone else. Culver added 12 points to his lead while nussle only added 4.
  • In the gender category, Culver has lost some ground with men but is still tied with Nussle at 48% of the male support in this state. Traditionally you see a majority of male support towards the Republican candidate so this tie shows that Culver is running a strong campaign and just how bad the national mood is for Nussle.
  • When looking at women, Culver also holds an 18 point lead, adding 11 points onto last month’s total putting him at 56% of their support versus Nussle’s 38% (he only added 1 point from last month).

And now here come the really interesting numbers that also impact how our Congressional challengers and incumbent will do.

  • In the IA-01, Culver has a 62 - 34 lead. These numbers seem a bit strong, but it does correlate to some degree with the Register’s numbers for Braley. Part of a successful Nussle strategy was to win or least make his home district competitive. That hasn’t happened. He’s gained 3 points in his district since October while Culver added 11 points. Braley and Culver have this district locked up.
  • In the IA-02, Dave Loebsack’s chances of upsetting incumbent Republican Jim Leach rest on the ability to GOTV for Democrats across the district, particularly in the Iowa City area. With tonight’s Obama-Culver rally with Loebsack in attendance, we might be able to create what many thought to be unimaginable just a few short weeks ago — we upset Leach and send in Loebsack. Culver leads this district by 20 points, 58 - 38. Both candidates have increased their leads equally in this district but if Culver’s coattails are big enough, we will be saying congratulations to Congressman Dave Loebsack.
  • In the IA-03, things remain close, however Culver’s lead against Nussle is quite similar to the one we’ve been seeing between incumbent Democrat Leonard Boswell and challenger Jeff Lamberti. Culver leads 54 - 43. Boswell is sure to win this district, as is Culver, but it looks like the spread will all depend on the strength of GOTV, which I know the Boswell folks are working dilligently on.
  • In the IA-04, things are rapidly changing on the ground. Tom Latham has gone up on the air with a negative ad against Dr. Selden Spencer hinting at some very close internal polling up in North central Iowa. Between Culver and Nussle, this district is tied 46 - 46 with Culver adding just a few more points since last month when compared to Nussle. If the wave nationwide is as big as some predict it to be, then we could be up late into the night counting returns for the IA-04.
  • Finally, in the IA-05, we’ve got the only District where Nussle gets some good news. He’s got a 14 point lead in the district, 54 - 40. It seems clear that President Bush’s impending visit and then actual visit probably helped him a bit in the polling in the district and it really is the 04 and the 05 that keep Nussle competitive in the state. To salvage this race, Nussle is going to need significant turnout in this district to push him close. I don’t see that happening.

I think there is going to be a lot of talk about the supposed surge the Register saw late in the week while tracking the poll. I wouldn’t look to much into it except to call it the natural tightening. I think we’d probably be a lot more informed if the Register released many of the internals on the polling, but they never have for some reason.

David Yepsen has two worthwhile columns today, the first looking at what went wrong with Nussle’s campaign — seems to me that Yepsen is almost ready to assume it is going to be Governor Culver — even though the headline assumes Nussle can overcome the obstacles Yepsen lays out. The other article talks about the actual changes the Iowa political scene will face and how one man’s life will change drastically as he prepares to assume the governorship. Yepsen calls it a ripple effect which seems apt considering the wave everyone keeps talking about for Democrats across the nation.

In a little over two days, everything is going to change.

Democrats have the momentum come election day

Krusty seems to think that Democrats aren’t so giddy now. He points to the release of yesterday’s WSJ/Zogby poll release that shows the race within 2 points as well as others since the Register’s Iowa Poll release on October 15 that shows the race is getting closer and closer.

First of all, to the best of my knowledge, the Culver campaign has never hyped the WSJ/Zogby interactive polls since the campaign began. There are reasons for that, the primary one being the methodology — it is Internet-based and most polling experts don’t recognize the interactive polls as being reliable or entirely representative (they have only been used since the 2004 election) so I’m assuming that after this cycle we’ll have a better understanding of how accurate/reliable they are. One usually assumes that Democrats are quite enthusiastic about Zogby’s polling, since he does lean left, however I am really only a fan of his telephone polling which is pretty reliable.

Beyond the simple doubts about the WSJ/Zogby polling methodology, the fact is that internal polling shows Culver maintaining his 7-point lead, as the Culver Campaign put out in a news release yesterday:

“A new poll from the Global Strategy Group shows Iowa Secretary of State has a solid seven point point lead over Republican Congressman Jim Nussle. Culver leads, 44% to 37%, with just 13% of likely voters undecided.

The poll shows Culver has maintained his 7 point lead from the October 15th Des Moines Register poll.

“Culver has clear momentum and every public poll since the October 15th Des Moines Register poll shows Chet Culver with a lead in this race,” said Culver spokesperson Taylor West.”

Culver is holding onto his lead and will win this race on Tuesday, November 7th. Krusty thinks it is narrowing — it isn’t. Let’s look at some more of the information held in the Global Strategy Group memo about the poll:

  • Culver is viewed favorably by 51% of likely voters, and unfavorably by 27%. Nearly as many likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of Nussle (40%) as have a favorable opinion of him (43%).
  • Democrats are solidly behind Culver (74%-12%). Nussle leads among Republicans, 70% to 15%.
  • Independent voters favor Culver over Nussle, 40% to 28%.
  • Democratic voters are more excited about this November’s elections than are other voters. 56% of Democrats say they would rate their interest in the upcoming election at a “10 out of 10,” compared to just just 45% of Republicans.
  • Among voters who rate their interest in the upcoming election a 10 out of 10, Culver leads Nussle, 50% to 37%.

The basic facts show Culver with higher favorability than Nussle, lower unfavorability than Nussle, a lock of the base (3/4 of Democrats is a lock), a 12 point lead among independents, and Democrats are excited. Not to mention the fact that if you look at the voters polled in the race who rate the race at a 10 out of 10 (a likely sign that they’ll be voting for sure), Culver has a 13 point lead.

But let’s look at some more of the facts. Yesterday, the Secretary of State’s Office released the numbers on how many people in Iowa are registered to vote.

“A report released today showed 2,077,239 Iowans registered for the midterm election, just seven days away.

They included 624,000 Republicans, 646,000 Democrats and 808,000 registered as no party.

This year’s number of registered voters compares with 1,966,459 who registered to vote in November 2002, the last midterm election.”

Let’s incorporate what the polling has consistently shown. First, Culver has consistently maintained a lead in these past few weeks. That means he’s getting the votes of a large amount of Democrats and most likely a very large number of independents, and I’m sure there are a few token Republicans, like Major Dad who commented yesterday about stem cell research. Secondly, Culver has consistently led among independents, which is usually the folks registered as no party in Iowa. Thus, if Culver can get his excited and motivated base out (which events like the Michael J. Fox rally can do) to vote on election day — which shouldn’t be hard — then he’ll immediately have an advantage with a Democratic voter registration edge and a strong advantage among independents and those registered as no party. Nussle and Republicans across the state are dealing with a base that is not motivated. The Republican party has their 72 hour program. Let’s see how well it works.

Finally, let us look at the Democrats’ GOTV efforts. David Yepsen has now twice lamented the absentee ballot turnout of Democrats in this mid-term race. He wrote in yesterday’s column:

“In Iowa, the much ballyhooed Democratic absentee-ballot program isn’t producing the results it produced in the last mid-term election. Democratic strategists still think they’ll produce 10,000 to 15,000 more absentee votes than Republicans do, but that’s not a comfortable margin heading into Election Day, when Republicans have the superior get-out-the-vote operation.”

The fact, the absentee ballot program has changed dramatically from four years ago. The problem then was that Democrats targeted those reliable Democrats who would go to the polls almost consistently on election day. That means our early targeting program got the most reliable Democrats out early and forced a GOTV strategy that focused on the less-motivated who took more time and resources to get them out and fill out the ballot.

This year, Democrats targeted voters who aren’t as likely to make it to the polls, but who are willing and ready to vote Democrat and need to do it early and get it out of the way. And still, in our absentee ballot effort, we lead in requests and the amounts turned in. So our program has been expanding beyond our base — which we know is excited and ready to get out and vote on November 7th. So our GOTV focus will be on getting all motivated Democrats out to vote and still focusing on those who didn’t get an absentee ballot and need to make it to the polls.

We have the polling edge, the motivation edge, and the GOTV edge. Democrats win on November 7th.

IA-Gov: Culver and the rainforest

Today, David Yepsen writes a five-piece column — either because there are too many things to talk about before Election Day or that he is just being lazy — and his first highlight is attacking Chet Culver and Patty Judge on their Iowa Rainforest ad. I’m sorry, but if even State 29 likes the ad then there has to be some kind of appealing quality to it even if we don’t understand the style or State 29.

I think State 29 is on the point when he writes:

“Listen, Yepsen, you’re not fooling anybody. The Register is in bed with the Omans and Bob Ray can do no wrong. Your newspaper has rarely been objective about the rainforest scam, especially in recent years. A reporter is always around whenever David Oman has a press conference, but there’s never any critical analysis by your army of opinion columnists.”

‘In bed’ might be a bit strong of a phrase, but there has been limited highlights of criticism by the reporting staff or the opinion page. Oh, and if State really believes that the Register is in bed with David Oman and Bob Ray, then I had better never hear him call the paper some kind of liberal rag, because both are quite the popular and influential Republicans.

The fact is, you can’t sell Iowa to tourists and others with something that is uniquely un-Iowa, in this case, a rainforest. It is a waste of federal tax dollars to try to improve tourism in Iowa by building this thing. Why not indulge in building on what Iowa already has that we can sell and attract people to our state?

Listen, Culver is right on the money by criticizing the rainforest. Who honestly thinks it is a good idea to spend at least $50 million on a rainforest here in Iowa? I want to build on this state as much as Yepsen does, but a rainforest is a waste.

Yepsen’s other criticism is that the ad doesn’t look professional or gubernatorial. Yepsen doesn’t get what the people are looking for. Culver took one out of Fallon’s playbook, to some extent, by making this ad different and adding humor to it. It stands out from the typical attack or comparison ads — not to mention it incorporates Patty Judge as a running mate, which is more than the Nussle campaign has done with BVP, who they are right to control because when he speaks he says dumb things like intelligent design is good in schools.

IA-Gov: Nussle launches first attack ad

This morning Jim Nussle resorted to luanching the first attack ad of the general election gubernatorial race, attacking Chet Culver on his IPERS plan. There isn’t a story on the ad yet, but it definitely distorts things.

Here’s what David Yepsen had to say about Culver’s plan in this morning’s Register:
“Chet Culver is getting a bum rap on part of his economic-development plan for Iowa.

The Democratic candidate for governor has suggested using more of the Iowa Public Employees Retirement System (IPERS) pension fund’s venture capital money to invest in high-tech and manufacturing business start-ups in Iowa.

It’s something other states do. It would help start more new businesses in Iowa. It might even bolster the soundness of the fund by improving the Iowa economy. Republicans are attacking the idea, saying it might make the fund unsound.

They’re wrong. Culver’s right.”
Its a good piece, and one I think you should read.

I think the best explanation against the attack ad comes from this Culver Camp press release:

Sagging Nussle Campaign Resorts to First Negative TV Attack Ad of the Campaign
Nussle Continues Attempt to Hide His Support for Privatizing Social Security by Misleading on IPERS

“(Des Moines) Trailing in the polls and forced to defend his record of failure in Washington – even against fellow Republicans like Jeff Lamberti – Congressman Jim Nussle has apparently already reached a desperation point. This morning, Congressman Nussle launched the first television attack ads of the gubernatorial campaign, clinging to scare tactics and misrepresentation of Chet Culver’s positions as a way to shore up his sagging campaign.

“This ad says a lot more about Jim Nussle than it does about Chet Culver,” said Culver spokeswoman Taylor West. “It’s pretty telling that it’s not even Labor Day, and Jim Nussle has already run out of positive ideas. The latest polls show Iowans aren’t interested in bringing Jim Nussle’s Washington mess to Iowa. I guess their only choice now is to try to tear Chet Culver down with negative, misleading attacks.”

The ad rehashes Congressman Nussle’s earlier attempt to cover his own record of assaulting pension security in Washington by misrepresenting Chet Culver’s proposals for boosting small businesses in Iowa and protecting and strengthening IPERS. Nussle’s scare tactics have already been discredited, most recently by David Yepsen in the Des Moines Register, who said simply, “They’re wrong. Culver’s right.” [Des Moines Register, 8/29/06]

In fact, it is Congressman Nussle who will be forced to explain his record on pensions. In Washington, Nussle voted to weaken pension laws and allow corporations to raid employee pension funds. He’s also been an outspoken proponent of privatizing Social Security, a plan that puts everyone’s pensions at risk and results in reduced benefits or higher taxes. [Vote #743, 10/26/95; Vote #117, 4/2/04; Washington Post, 4/3/04; Des Moines Register, 2/10/05; Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 6/2/05]

It’s not surprising that Jim Nussle would see going negative as his only option so early in his ad campaign. A Wall Street Journal/Zogby poll released yesterday shows Nussle trailing Culver despite having already spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on television and radio ads across the state. This was the second straight poll to show Nussle behind, following a Rasmussen poll released earlier this month.

Nussle’s fund-raising has also lost momentum, with Culver outraising him nearly 3-to-1 in the last reporting period.

“Iowans are responding to Chet Culver’s vision and plan to lead Iowa forward,” said West. “They know that Chet shares their Iowa values and common sense. Jim Nussle’s Washington record is the exact opposite, and he’s being forced to resort to negative, misleading attacks to cover that up.””

And here’s a break-down of the facts that you should know:

NARRATOR
“Chet Culver’s plan to quote redirect some IPERS retirement funds to invest in high tech startup companies.”

THE FACTS
Chet Culver is an IPERS member himself and would never put our state’s pensions at risk He has proposed a plan that will help IPERS grow with no more risk than our current investment strategy. Culver’s plan is fiscally sound, following IPERS’ June 2005 Private Equity Investment Strategy, which concludes: “long-term expected returns from private equity markets are substantially greater than from public equity markets.”

NARRATOR
“Culver thinks they’re a good place to invest the pensions of Iowa employees and retirees.”

THE FACTS
Jim Nussle doesn’t understand how Iowa invests its public pension dollars. IPERS currently invests 7.5% percent of its holdings in private equity, some of it in venture capital – with a target of 10% in private equity. Chet Culver has proposed finding a way to keep a portion – up to 1% - of that investment here in Iowa, instead of using Iowa worker’s funds to help grow businesses elsewhere.

Culver’s plan is not a mandate. Current law allows IPERS to invest in venture capital, and Culver’s plan would simply urge the IPERS board to look more closely into investing in Iowa companies, instead of sending all of it to companies in California and New York.

Culver’s plan does not usurp the strict fiduciary investment responsibility the IPERS board maintains, and its simply wrong for Nussle to suggest that. Companies that receive IPERS investment would have to meet those high standards. This is about Iowa competing, plain and simple.

NARRATOR
“Can we trust politicians like Culver with their hands in the pension cookie jar deciding how to invest your retirement money?”

THE FACTS
Chet Culver has his own money invested in IPERS and would never do anything to put pensions at risk. The plan Culver has proposed is not a mandate, does not require IPERS rule changes, and would not take investment decisions out of the hands of the IPERS board. On the other hand, Jim Nussle has a history of allowing corporations to raid employee pensions and decrease their contributions to pension plans. Nussle is also a strong advocate for privatizing Social Security, a plan that would put everyone’s pensions at risk and result in either reduced benefits or higher taxes.

Nussle Voted for Republican Budget That Would Allow Corporations to Raid Employee Pension Funds. Nussle voted to ease restrictions on corporate raids of private employee pension funds. [vote #743, 10/26/95]

Nussle Voted to Allow Companies to Reduce Pension Contributions. Jim Nussle voted to allow companies to reduce contributions to their pension plans by temporarily altering the formula used to calculate whether those contributions are sufficient to cover liabilities. [Vote #117, 4/2/04; Washington Post, 4/3/04]

Des Moines Register Headline: “Nussle Touts Bush Plan for Social Security.” [Des Moines Register, 2/10/05]

2005: Nussle Appeared with Bush at Social Security Event. The Des Moines Register reported in June 2005 that, “[Nussle] appeared with President Bush at a Cedar Rapids event where Bush touted personal accounts.” [Des Moines Register, 6/22/05]

Nussle Supported Private Account Investment Managed by Private Firms. According to a Project Vote Smart survey, Jim Nussle supported: “Allow workers to invest a portion of their payroll tax in private accounts managed by private firms contracted by the government.” [Project Vote Smart, 2004 National Congressional Political Awareness Test]

Nussle Planned Privatization of Social Security. In February 2001, the Des Moines Register reported that, “Nussle also is planning changes in Social Security, including some kind of program allowing some investment in the private sector.” [Des Moines Register, 2/8/01]

Waterloo Courier Editorial: Nussle Supports Privatizing Social Security. The Waterloo Courier published an editorial in October 2000 saying, “Nussle, like the top of his ticket, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, supports privatizing a portion of Social Security.” [Waterloo Cedar Falls Courier Editorial, 10/29/00]

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Concluded Benefit Cuts or Higher Taxes Would Result from Privatization. The CBPP reported in June 2005 that, “There are two general ways to fund the transition costs [to social security privatization] if payroll tax revenues are diverted from Social Security to private accounts.

  • Cut benefits for current retirees. If transition costs are financed by cutting benefits for current retirees, younger workers would indeed receive higher rates of return when they retired. But in that case, the younger workers would be benefiting from a redistribution from current retirees, who would see their rates of return go down sharply.
  • Raise additional resources to pay for current benefits. Alternatively, benefits for current seniors could be maintained and be financed by providing additional resources for Social Security through general revenue transfers that are financed through government borrowing (to be repaid by imposing Social Security benefit cuts on future retirees) or through higher taxes on current workers.”

[Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 6/2/05]

Nussle is misleading and distorting and attacking. Don’t let him get away with this bullshit. I’ll have more on IPERS later, but these are the facts.

2008: Yepsen gives some caucus talk

Today’s piece by David Yepsen is actually worthwhile (proving that he does know enough about the Iowa caucuses to at least talk decently about them) as it addresses the calendar issues that we’ll be seeing over the next 8-12 months as New Hampshire figures out what it is going to do since the DNC put Nevada in between Iowa and NH.

Two points that are worth bringing up from the column:

“If the purpose of the change was to diminish the significance of the Iowa caucuses, it failed. Packing so many events so closely after the Iowa events just makes Iowa more important. There is not enough time between these caucuses and primaries for a candidate to recover from a setback here — or to slow the winner’s momentum.”

I think Yepsen is right on the money here. The only way to really diversify or mix things up would be to end the front-loading, insert more time between the events, and change the order. With Iowa first and Nevada a few days later followed quickly by NH and then SC we’ll get a giantkiller effect: Iowa’s status in picking the nominee is essentially solidified as those who don’t do well in Iowa will drop out — and fast. Right now, this scenario seems especially true since Iowan’s aren’t thrilled or enthusiastic about a Governor Vilsack Presidential run and since Nevada’s Democratic Party has never had to organize or prepare for such an influential retail politics caucus event. In the case that Nevada can make some kind of amazing transformation and get their Democrats ready for such a powerful role — or should Governor Vilsack earn Iowan’s love again — I don’t foresee the relatively new caucus state of Nevada playing a big role. But don’t get me wrong here, all I’m really advocating is for the end of front-loading.

Secondly, the conclusion of his column is critical:

“Decisions about the caucus date will be made by Iowa’s new state party chairs, chosen after the November elections — and by the state party central committees that choose them. The new governor will have a lot to say about what his party does.

Which is why we should be asking Jim Nussle and Chet Culver what they’ll do about these questions. Once New Hampshire settles on its date, probably by mid-2007, decisions in Iowa will have to be made quickly.”

So, Congressman Nussle and Secretary Culver, where do you stand on the issues?