Archive for the 'Polls' Category

Newsweek gives Obama, Huckabee leads in Iowa

Published by
Chris Woods
December 7, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats, Iowa politics, Polls and Republicans. 0 Comments

It is still a tight race on the Democratic side between Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama, while on the Republican side Mike Huckabee has surged past Mitt Romney to take a commanding lead in Iowa according to the latest Newsweek Iowa Caucus polling released this afternoon.

Here are the Democratic results among likely caucus-goers, with all Democrats polled in parentheses (Republicans are below the fold):

Barack Obama 35% (29%)
Hillary Clinton 29% (30%)
John Edwards 18% (21%)
Bill Richardson 9% (11%)
Joe Biden 4% (2%)
Dennis Kucinich * (1%)
Chris Dodd * (*)
Other candidate 0% (0%)
Undecided 5% (6%)

Only 395 were identified as likely caucus-goers, meaning that the margin of error among those likely caucus-goers is +/-6%. If you take the MOE for all 673 polled, it is still +/-5%. Clearly, Obama comes across as the front-runner from the looks of the polls, with Edwards still hanging out. I’d say that the polling doesn’t accurately reflect Edwards’ stance all that much and we all know that his 2004 infrastructure is still largely in place giving him quite the advantage in that arena.

A couple of things to take from the results. First of all, it looks like contrary to popular belief Barack Obama may be doing better with those who are already more likely to attend their precinct caucus. Thus, expanding the universe of potential caucus-goers for Obama might actually be more detrimental. Same goes for Joe Biden. However, when you include all of those Democrats polled Clinton, Edwards, and Richardson all gain. To me that means: a) Obama has more committed supporters ready to say they’re going to caucus, or b) Obama’s support in the so-called “expansion universe” of potential caucus-goers isn’t as strong as the conventional wisdom says. These are both assumptions on my part and there is always room for other interpretation, but that’s what I’m seeing here.

The second specific point about the poll was that they polled second choices as well, which Bleeding Heartland reader RF noted earlier this week in a comment. These totals are going to add to more than 100%, but here are the net first/second choice support totals for the candidates, with likely caucus-goers as the first number and all Democrats polled in parentheses:

Barack Obama 55% (50%)
Hillary Clinton 50% (51)
John Edwards 45% (44%)
Bill Richardson 16% (17%)
Joe Biden 11% (8%)
Chris Dodd 2% (1%)
Dennis Kucinich * (1%)
Other candidate * (*)
Undecided 5% (6%)

Again, to me this confirms that the race in Iowa is still a strong three-way race between Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. The gap in first/second choice support is only 10% among likely caucus-goers (and 7% among the rest of Democrats) while there is a 17% gap among likely’s in first choice and 9% among all Democrats. Things are still tightly wound among Iowa Democrats.

You can see the full poll results here in PDF form courtesy of Newsweek. Their story on the poll is here.
Continue reading ‘Newsweek gives Obama, Huckabee leads in Iowa’

Richardson joins the top-tier

Published by
Chris Woods
June 27, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats, Iowa politics, Polls and Richardson. 1 Comment

As I reported over at Iowa Independent on Monday, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is close to (if he already hasn’t) entering the top tier of Democratic candidates, particularly because of how well he’s doing in Iowa.

Earlier today, Professor Charles Franklin over at Pollster.com noticed the same trends and it became clear to him that in their tracking of the Top Dems, Richardson needed to be included. And I would agree. Just from talking with friends and seeing a presence in the state, the leading candidates are Edwards, Obama, Richardson, and Clinton. Every once in a while you see a Dodd or a Biden sticker around.

The best part is that you always hear folks talking about the candidates, and highlighting their positives and negatives. And for the most part, whoever our nominee is, it seems like there will be a pretty easy time transitioning support from the primary favorites to the nominee.

The top-tier Democrats now include Clinton, Obama, Edwards, and Richardson. And I think that is likely to stay the same until caucus time, unless Al Gore throws his hat into the ring. If he does that, the dynamics are altered drastically and everything changes. You can’t rely on the polling with Gore’s name in it right now because the only folks currently caucusing/voting for him will be the big idealists. If he gets in for real, then expect to see substantially different polling and levels of support.

Ouch-26%

Published by
Chris Woods
June 21, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Bush Administration, Caucuses, Iraq, Polls and Republicans. 4 Comments

President Bush hit a new low in his approval rating in the latest Newsweek poll — 26%!

Somebody get that guy a pony.

Oh, and the Iraq war situation and its handling only gets a 23% approval, with a 73% disapproval rating. I wonder just how much it is going to hurt to be a Republican candidate for the presidency over the next several months.

New Caucus Poll: Democrats Undecided; Republicans Favoring Romney

Published by
Chris Woods
June 20, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats, Iowa politics, Polls and Republicans. 1 Comment

Cross-posted at Iowa Independent.

A new Mason-Dixon poll released Tuesday shows the top-three Democratic contenders are in a close race in Iowa, with a surprising 27 percent of voters declaring themselves “undecided” nearly seven months before the nation’s first presidential caucus. On the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain seems to be tanking, with just 6 percent of Republican caucus-goers saying they’ll vote for him.

MSNBC’s First Read first reported the results Tuesday; details of the polling methodology and results are available to Mason-Dixon subscribers only.

On the Democratic side, 22 percent of caucus-goers said they would support Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, 21 percent favored former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and 18 percent preferred Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson led the second-tier candidates with 6 percent, and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden had 4 percent.

The polling, which included 400 “likely caucus-goers,” has a margin of error of +/- 5 percent. That puts Clinton, Edwards, and Obama into a statistical tie, essentially.

For Republicans, the race seems much clearer. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads with 25 percent vs. 21 percent for “undecided.”

However, the race gets a bit interesting once you get past Romney, who has consistently been leading in most Iowa polling. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson registered 17 percent support, while former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani stood at 15 percent. In the second tier, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s 7 percent out-polled both McCain and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, who drew 6 percent.

McCain’s collapse into the single-digits seems indicative of a struggling campaign in the state. It also appears that his decision to skip the Iowa GOP’s August Straw Poll could affect him in the January caucuses.

This is Mason-Dixon’s first poll on the 2008 field in Iowa. The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll has consistently shown Edwards with a lead on the Democratic side, with Clinton and Obama battling for second. On the Republican side, Romney’s lead is consistent with the Iowa Poll results. Thompson’s ascension to second place confirms a national trend that has shown the candidate surging to the top of the Republican ticket.

New polling confirms Edwards, Romney leading in Iowa

Published by
Chris Woods
June 4, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats, Iowa politics and Polls. 0 Comments

Former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., and former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., are the front-runners in Iowa to win their respective party’s caucuses in a new poll released Monday by Public Policy Polling (PPP), based in North Carolina.

Edwards leads all Democrats at 31 percent with Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama tied for second place with 17 percent. Romney leads all Republicans with 31 percent with former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson in second with 15 percent, beating out former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain. Both McCain and Giuliani polled in the single digits.

The results of the PPP surveys seem to correspond with recent numbers released by Selzer and Co., the firm which conducts the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll. PPP conducts their surveys via IVR, or interactive voice response. No actual questions are asked by a person; instead a recording plays, and the answers provided by the respondent make up the survey results.

The most recent Iowa Poll showed Edwards leading all Democrats with 29 percent, while Romney led all Republicans with 30 percent. Fred Thompson was not included in the Iowa Poll, but his surge to 15 percent in the PPP survey shows that he can be a viable candidate in the Iowa Republican Straw Poll come August. Thompson recently confirmed he would be entering the Republican field, and it was reported last week that Thompson’s aides have already contacted state Republican officials about plans to organize a caucus staff.

The rest of the polling revealed that New Mexico Democrat Bill Richardson is continuing to strengthen his support in Iowa, polling at 10 percent. All other Democratic candidates were under 5 percent, and those selecting “undecided” stood at 17 percent.

On the Republican side, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich polled at third place with 10 percent. Gingrich has yet to declare his candidacy but has speculated he may jump into the race later on this year. McCain polled at 9 percent and Giuliani polled at 8 percent. Of the Republican options, 19 percent said they supported another candidate, and 8 percent were undecided.

The low numbers for McCain and Giuliani are contrary to other results seen nationally, where both candidates have seen strong support. However, both candidates have appeared to be weaker in Iowa than in other parts of the country. Speculation continues to soar over whether or not Giuliani will actually compete in the August straw poll, with his staff saying a decision will come sometime in the middle of this month.

PPP polled 1,238 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 774 likely Republican caucus-goers. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent and +/- 3.5 percent, respectively.

2008: Republican polling firm puts Edwards on top

Published by
Chris Woods
January 23, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats, Iowa politics and Polls. 0 Comments

Strategic Vision, a Republican polling firm, has released their first polling on the Iowa Caucuses. Here are the results:

John Edwards 25%
Barack Obama 17%
Tom Vilsack 16%
Hillary Clinton 15%
Joe Biden 4%
John Kerry 3%
Wesley Clark 2%
Bill Richardson 1%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 15%

It is remarkably similar to the Zogby poll just released a few days ago, which you can find here. There isn’t a lot to add to what I said about the Zogby polling, but it will be interesting to see if any of these polling firms starts polling Iowa Democrats after a big statewide tour by a particular candidate to see how much visits and big publicity effects the race. I’m guessing there might be a bit of an impact that’s worth noticing. Oh, and take both Zogby and Strategic Vision polls with a huge grain of salt, considering that Zogby has polling methodology problems while SR is a Republican polling outlet.

2008: Zogby poll puts Edwards in the lead in Iowa

Published by
Chris Woods
January 17, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Clinton, Democrats, Dodd, Edwards, Iowa politics, Kerry, Obama, Polls and Vilsack, Tom. 5 Comments

As I have pointed out, polling the Iowa Caucuses this early can be quite complicated and worthless, but at least it provides us trends to track. Today, Zogby International released their first Iowa Caucus 2008 poll on the Democratic race for president. While they don’t describe their question or their exact methodology for the polling, from my tracking of the results they seem to be right in the middle of the pack between the clear differences we found between the ARG Poll and the KCCI/Research 2000 polling from a few weeks ago. Anyway, enough babble, here are the results:

DEMOCRATS %
Edwards 27%
Obama 17%
Vilsack 16%
Clinton 16%
Biden 3%
Kerry 3%
Kucinich 1%
Richardson 1%
Not sure 13%

Clearly, from what they show, there are clearly about three tiers in Iiowa. Edwards, at least in their polling, holds the first tier to himself. Obama, Vilsack, and Clinton control the second tier, while the rest control the third tier. Hotline On Call has their thoughts here. This doesn’t mean I believe these tiers, it is just reflective of what the polling shows. Maybe I’ll issue my own tiers soon in a cattle call format or something.

So far, I think the polling is quite reliable just from the ground game that I’m familiar with in Iowa. I’ll be able to be a better judge of where people stand, at least in Polk County, after next Wednesday’s Central Committee Meeting.

Iowa Democrats oppose escalation

Published by
Chris Woods
January 10, 2007 in Boswell, Leonard, Braley, Congress, Democrats, Des Moines, Harkin, Tom, IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, Iowa politics, Iraq, Loebsack, National Security, Polls and Republicans. 0 Comments

This post is probably going to be a bit jumbled, so forgive me, but there is so much to write about in terms of escalation right now that I’m going to try and put it all together.

First of all, Vilsack gets the fantastic title from Atrios of being “shrill” about escalating the war in Iraq by surging the amount of troops. What’s more, Vilsack is clearly abandoning the line that DLC is trying to toe by calling for a rejection of escalation by Congress and states/communities across the country. Will Marshall says that Democrats talking about rejecting escalation are the activist left and “the activist left is out of sync with the American public.” Bullshit. Only 36% of Americans favor a surge. You don’t know what the fuck you’re talking about Marshall. And for that matter, neither does Krusty, who says that Vilsack’s “farewell speech […] panders to the most rabid of Democrat caucus goers.” If 64% of Americans are Democratic caucus goers, then I think we’re in good position to take back the White House solidly in 2008.

Second, I’m glad to see that Iowa Democrats are speaking out against a surge in troops and an escalation of the war. According to the Register Harkin, Braley, and Loebsack expressly said they were opposed to a surge while Boswell recognizes that the American public wants this war to end and an escalation isn’t the way to do so. More specifically, as the Press-Citizen notes, Loebsack is in favor of a bill in the House similar to Ted Kennedy’s that he introduced yesterday:

“The lawmaker said he is sympathetic to legislation introduced Tuesday by Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., that would deny the president the funds to pay for the additional troops unless Congress approved them.”

Congressman Ed Markey (D-MA-07) will be introducing the exact same legislation in the House, or at least he’s supposed to. But as BarbinMD notes over on the front page of Daily Kos, it looks like Congressional Democrats are going to play the bend-over-and-take-it game for now by passing non-binding resolutions — a symbolic act, according to the New York Times — and then might up the ante later on. Americans elected Democrats to take leadership and fight back but all we’re getting is some useless huffing and puffing from the leadership. After six years, you would think that they would stop giving Bush the benefit of the doubt. This AP News Analysis points out, the stuff we’re hearing and the strategy being implemented it nothing new, just the same old same old.

So, contact your representatives in DC and tell them you’re opposed to escalation. And if you’re in Des Moines, please attend this tomorrow night if you can:

AmericaSaysNo.org anti-escalation rally
Nollen Plaza (in Des Moines)
Thursday, Jan 11 2007, 6:00 PM

I’ll be in Iowa City and won’t be able to attend, but I hope rallies like this across the nation put the message out that we oppose escalating this war. The American public and Democrats don’t want to make a big mistake even bigger.

UPDATE: For more, go see this post at Political Fallout.

2008: Parsing the polls won’t give you much

Published by
Chris Woods
January 3, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Caucuses, Democrats, Iowa politics, Media and Polls. 1 Comment

Ed. Note: Updated below.

Last week, I offered some commentary on the recent flourish of polling on the 2008 Iowa Caucuses that had come out and said that right now, none of the polling really matters. What truly matters is the perception of the candidates at the base level activists. The pundits and those in the media will continue to hype the polls and talk about the horserace nature of the contest, but for now, they’re going to neglect the small things that the candidates will be doing in Iowa as we approach the season of retail politics at its finest.

Today, Chris Cillizza over at the Washington Post gets a bit giddy as he begins to parse the most recent ARG polling, which as Drew has noted, is a little bit off compared to the other recent polling. For the record, Cillizza neglects to even mention or discuss the Research 2000 poll and instead bases his comparison on the Environmental Defense poll that was conducted in October and the June Iowa Poll from the Register. In all reality, he should be comparing the ARG poll versus the Research 2000 poll, which were conducted at essentially the same time.

Mark Blumenthal, pollster extraordinaire, examines the polling so far and calls it “only the beginning,” which is absolutely the case. He examines the methodology of the polling and the circumstances surrounding the time period of the polling and ultimately concludes his post with this little bit:

“All of which leaves me scratching my head, except to say this: Whenever very small differences in methodology make for huge differences in results, it suggests that voters are not yet engaged in the race enough to have strong allegiances. Put another way, while each poll may have a candidate running in front, in Iowa at least, there is not yet a true “front runner.”"

Thankfully, Blumenthal gets what I’ve been saying: That there are some top candidates in Iowa, but it is too early to declare a front-runner because their are few substantial allegiances right now.

Cillizza writes a bit about the ARG polling and comes to this summary:

“None of the other candidates tested in the survey were able to crack mid-single digits in more than a single state — which could signal that polls done this early largely serve as a measure of name identification OR that a field including Clinton, Obama and Edwards leaves little room for other candidates.”

However, I don’t grant his premise that the ARG poll actually signals anything meaningful, particularly when Research 2000 says Edwards and Obama are tied for the lead, with Clinton in fourth versus ARG who puts her on top. Truly, with the limited base of Democrats who will actually participate in the 2008 Democratic caucuses, it will be hard to find a good sample this early. And even if there is a good sample, like I said above, there aren’t significant allegiances forming yet. Retail politics is how things are done. If you want to really judge motivation and support for particular candidates, then you should be examining the ways in which they’re reaching out to constituents not just in Iowa, but in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina as well. The small community gatherings and the outreach to interest groups will be critical in the next several months, particularly as field operations come to life.

UPDATE: Mark Blumenthal posts an update on his post with this little bit from Mickey Kaus over at Slate.com, which is worth considering:

“There’s a big difference between 1) asking voters if they “definitely plan” to go to the caucuses, and 2) asking voters if they actually participated in the 2004 caucuses. Lots of people say they “plan” to attend. That’s normal! But those who have attended are the sort of pathetically unrepresentative hard core activists …sorry, committed citizens who make up the tiny sliver (6%) of Iowa voters who actually show up and choose the winner: … In this case, the merely aspirational caucusgoers pick Clinton, while the hard core goes for Obama–a result consistent with the idea that Obama is capturing those who think a lot about politics, while those who don’t think as much about politics haven’t yet been hit by the wave.”

In this case, ARG polled with questions asking the voter if they planned to attend while Research 2000 polled by asking did you attend the 2004 caucuses and will you participate in the 2008 caucuses. The fact is, from what I’ve seen, the hardcore activists are definitely excited about Edwards and Obama, but I’ve heard nothing encouraging about Clinton at all, other than that people want her to visit the state so they can learn more about her.

What is the final step to victory in Iraq, Mr. King?

Published by
Chris Woods
January 2, 2007 in 2008 Elections, Harkin, Tom, IA-05, Iowa politics, Iraq, Polls, Radical Right, Republicans and Terrorism. 0 Comments

Steve King continues babbling out of his ass on Iraq. From Bret Hayworth’s Politically Speaking blog:

“It is old news — so 2006 — but after I left work Dec. 29 for a three-day weekend, later that evening Saddam Hussein was executed by hanging, and about 10 p.m. that night Iowa 5th District Congressman Steve King sent around a press release on Saddam’s execution. King said it was an important example of the rule of law being enforced in Iraq, and that Saddam’s death brings the U.S. “a big step closer to a final victory in Iraq and the global war on terror.””

This is coming from the same guy who wants 100,000 more troops in the US armed forces, primarily in Iraq. How he plans to do that, I don’t know, but I’m guessing that cloning might be one of his options. In all seriousness though, steps ultimately indicate a process to a final goal or objective. If Saddam’s execution was a step, and it was in fact really possible and could be measured objectively, what is the next in the path to final victory, Mr. King? Somehow, I don’t think you know and even if you had an idea, it probably wouldn’t be realistically achievable. Not to mention that winning an amorphous and ambiguous war on a tactic is practically and theoretically impossible unless you wipe the word terror from modern language.

Anyway, I doubt anyone will really challenge King, particularly in the media, since they seem to love his big mouth and controversial status since it makes news. He’s one of the only people I know of that is in a public position calling for 100,000 more troops in Iraq yet no one has asked him the tough questions about his plan, like how it is realistically feasible in this day and age.

The bottom line is that King is an embarrassment to Western Iowa and to Iowa’s congressional delegation. He might deserve some respect for his anti-pork stance, but he just doesn’t want pork for the state or his district. Remember, he has volunteered his company as a contractor to build his “farm-like” electrically charged border he wants to build between the US and Mexico.

I really do hope that Steve King takes on Tom Harkin in 2008, so that Harkin can whoop this guy’s ass calling him out for the outrageousness of his actions. And hopefully it will allow for some kind of sane voice to represent the Fifth CD once again.

Oh, and don’t forget that only about 38% of those in the military want a ’surge’ in troops in Iraq.

…And it is so encouraging to see that the Iraqi government is now going to investigate the circumstances surrounding Saddam’s execution. Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad that he’s gone and is no longer a threat, but when the execution seems like just another event with the insurgency, you have to wonder just how stable things are inside the government.

2008: Do any of the polls matter right now?

Published by
Chris Woods
December 29, 2006 in 2008 Elections, Bayh, Blogs, Caucuses, Daschle, Tom, Democrats, Edwards, Feingold, Fundraising, Gore, Iowa politics, Kerry, Media, Obama, Polls, Vilsack, Tom and Warner. 1 Comment

The short answer to the simple question is: No.

We’ve all seen the variety of different Caucus 2008 polls appearing now that the 2006 cycle has just barely gone by and pollsters are getting back to work so they can pay their bills. So far, there have been at least three Iowa-centric or specific polls that have been released since the November elections (and the one from this summer by the Register). The first was a poll taken in October by an environmental group and then released about two weeks ago. Last week, KCCI released a poll. And yesterday, the American Research Group (ARG) released another. What do they all say?

Not a whole hell of a lot. If anything, all you can do is break some of the candidates into tiers, at least in Iowa. The top tier candidates, using averages from all of the Iowa polls on 2008, are decided by being in double-digit numbers when the four polls are averaged. They are:

  • Hillary Clinton (2)
  • John Edwards (1)
  • Barack Obama (3)
  • Tom Vilsack (4)

That’s in alphabetical order, and the number in parentheses is their average over the four polls so far (and is essentially unscientific).

The second tier is any candidate who “averages” 5-9 percentage points. They are:

  • Al Gore
  • John Kerry
  • Undecided/Other

In this tier you see the inherent problem with trying to average polls over a 6 month period of time, particularly as certain candidates are added or subtracted from the polls.

The third tier is full of those with 4% or less support in Iowa. Coincidently enough, they also include the candidates who have decided not to run so far, as they have probably only been in one poll and/or recognized that this year wasn’t their year. They are:

  • Evan Bayh*
  • Joe Biden
  • Wesley Clark
  • Tom Daschle*
  • Chris Dodd
  • Russ Feingold*
  • Mike Gravel
  • Dennis Kucinich
  • Bill Richardson
  • Mark Warner*

The *s mean the candidate has officially said they will not be seeking the 2008 Democratic nomination for president. If Biden, Dodd, or Richardson are really seriously considering getting into the race and wanting a legitimate shot at winning Iowa, they need to get in the race and declare quite soon. Otherwise, Iowa might be dominated early on by three or four candidates who are well-known — particularly two with significant financial advantages or means to raise more money.

However, even though I have gone through all the trouble of putting together tiers like this based on some kind of pseudo-analytical or scientific method of averages from polls, I think the tier system based simply on polls in Iowa are worthless this early. This summer and fall will be the hardcore campaigning days and Iowans are going to be inundated with presidential visits. In terms of activist support across the state, the clearly visible winner is John Edwards, with Tom Vilsack probably a good second. If Obama jumps into the race, I’d immediately expect him to surpass Vilsack but I don’t know if that will be a short-lived honeymoon with activists or a long-term commitment. Time will tell us on that one.

However, it is still early and it will take a lot for some of the newer candidates to establish themselves. The opportunities and communities for them to do so are out there, though, and they should begin to take advantage of them. The dynamics of this race are truly yet to be seen, no matter what the media prognosticators and pundits might tell you. The polls shouldn’t tell you a whole lot, either, as they are fluctuating so much right now, as Drew notes.

And if you need some really, really good reasons why to note that the caucuses are still wide open at this point, go read Chase’s post over Iowa Progress. The man says things a bit more eloquently than I do and more cohesively (as I think I might have written the different points he makes in a variety of different posts). His first, and I think, most important point is this:

“The caucuses are an expectations game above all else. Given two candidates with equal money, talent, charisma, etc., the candidate who is favored more heavily is actually in a weaker position right now than the candidate nobody is talking about. To “win” the caucuses, you have to beat expectations, not just the other candidates, and the job gets harder and harder as expectations get higher and higher.”

Word.

And don’t forget just how important money is to the survival game as well. Iowa might not be a bastion for fundraising (until the grassroots and netroots get tapped here for money like they do across the rest of the country) but right now to stay in the caucus game you have stay in the money. Since a month ago when Vilsack officially announced, he’s raised around a million dollars. In the 24-36 hours since Edwards has announced, he’s raised over $200,000 simply online. Talk amongst yourselves.

IA-Gov: Looking at the new polling numbers in detail

Published by
Chris Woods
November 5, 2006 in 2006 Elections, 2006 Governor's Race, Boswell, Leonard, Culver, Chet, Democrats, IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, IA-04, IA-05, Iowa Legislature, Iowa politics, Lamberti, Jeff, Latham, Tom, Nussle, Jim, Polls, Republicans, Voting and Yepsen, David. 0 Comments

I’m not going to be like Krusty and bash the numbers. But I will say this: the numbers look fantastic for Culver. Let’s wade into details — here’s the more in-depth Register story.

Let’s look at the demographics. I’ll be pulling this information from the sidebar of the Register story:

  • Among Democrats, Culver has 91% of their vote while Nussle has 90% of the Republican vote — that is to be expected.
  • What is most stunning is Culver’s growth by leaps and bounds in the number of independent voters swinging to his side. In last month’s Iowa Poll, Culver lead among independents 43 - 33, with 24% still undecided. Culver currently leads Nussle in independents 55 - 37, an 18 point lead. Only 8% of independents have yet to make up their mind or are voting for someone else. Culver added 12 points to his lead while nussle only added 4.
  • In the gender category, Culver has lost some ground with men but is still tied with Nussle at 48% of the male support in this state. Traditionally you see a majority of male support towards the Republican candidate so this tie shows that Culver is running a strong campaign and just how bad the national mood is for Nussle.
  • When looking at women, Culver also holds an 18 point lead, adding 11 points onto last month’s total putting him at 56% of their support versus Nussle’s 38% (he only added 1 point from last month).

And now here come the really interesting numbers that also impact how our Congressional challengers and incumbent will do.

  • In the IA-01, Culver has a 62 - 34 lead. These numbers seem a bit strong, but it does correlate to some degree with the Register’s numbers for Braley. Part of a successful Nussle strategy was to win or least make his home district competitive. That hasn’t happened. He’s gained 3 points in his district since October while Culver added 11 points. Braley and Culver have this district locked up.
  • In the IA-02, Dave Loebsack’s chances of upsetting incumbent Republican Jim Leach rest on the ability to GOTV for Democrats across the district, particularly in the Iowa City area. With tonight’s Obama-Culver rally with Loebsack in attendance, we might be able to create what many thought to be unimaginable just a few short weeks ago — we upset Leach and send in Loebsack. Culver leads this district by 20 points, 58 - 38. Both candidates have increased their leads equally in this district but if Culver’s coattails are big enough, we will be saying congratulations to Congressman Dave Loebsack.
  • In the IA-03, things remain close, however Culver’s lead against Nussle is quite similar to the one we’ve been seeing between incumbent Democrat Leonard Boswell and challenger Jeff Lamberti. Culver leads 54 - 43. Boswell is sure to win this district, as is Culver, but it looks like the spread will all depend on the strength of GOTV, which I know the Boswell folks are working dilligently on.
  • In the IA-04, things are rapidly changing on the ground. Tom Latham has gone up on the air with a negative ad against Dr. Selden Spencer hinting at some very close internal polling up in North central Iowa. Between Culver and Nussle, this district is tied 46 - 46 with Culver adding just a few more points since last month when compared to Nussle. If the wave nationwide is as big as some predict it to be, then we could be up late into the night counting returns for the IA-04.
  • Finally, in the IA-05, we’ve got the only District where Nussle gets some good news. He’s got a 14 point lead in the district, 54 - 40. It seems clear that President Bush’s impending visit and then actual visit probably helped him a bit in the polling in the district and it really is the 04 and the 05 that keep Nussle competitive in the state. To salvage this race, Nussle is going to need significant turnout in this district to push him close. I don’t see that happening.

I think there is going to be a lot of talk about the supposed surge the Register saw late in the week while tracking the poll. I wouldn’t look to much into it except to call it the natural tightening. I think we’d probably be a lot more informed if the Register released many of the internals on the polling, but they never have for some reason.

David Yepsen has two worthwhile columns today, the first looking at what went wrong with Nussle’s campaign — seems to me that Yepsen is almost ready to assume it is going to be Governor Culver — even though the headline assumes Nussle can overcome the obstacles Yepsen lays out. The other article talks about the actual changes the Iowa political scene will face and how one man’s life will change drastically as he prepares to assume the governorship. Yepsen calls it a ripple effect which seems apt considering the wave everyone keeps talking about for Democrats across the nation.

In a little over two days, everything is going to change.

IA-Gov: Culver leads by 9 in new Iowa Poll

Published by
Chris Woods
November 4, 2006 in 2006 Elections, 2006 Governor's Race, Agriculture, Congress, Culver, Chet, Democrats, IA-01, Iowa politics, Nussle, Jim, Polls, Republicans and Voting. 1 Comment

Tomorrow’s Des Moines Register will show Democrat Chet Culver leading Republican Jim Nussle by 9 points. Here is the precursor story from the Register’s site right now and below you can find the head-to-heads they list:

Governor
Culver-52% (46)
Nussle-43% (39)

IA-01
Braley-56%
Whalen-35%

SecAg
O’Brien-42% (40)
Northey-43% (26)

SoS
Mauro-43% (32)
Hanusa-33% (25)

The last Iowa Poll numbers are in parentheses. Clearly, Culver is building onto his lead in substantial numbers. He’s added 6 points while Nussle has only added 4. According to the Register, Nussle was starting to surge late in the polling, meaning that the random calling probably was heavily into eastern and central Iowa where the population has more depth and they can get easier polling responses while late into the polling they had to start hitting up the more rural and less-populated areas, likely in Western Iowa, where Republicans have a much stronger base. But then again, since the Register doesn’t release the full results, we’ll never know. (And for the record, I hate that policy — readers should be able to see the breakdowns.)

Looking at the IA-01 results, I think in general they’re an outlier when compared with most of the other polling in the race, but it is clear that Braley has the district locked up and it is a matter of whether or not Braley passes the spread. In the SecAg race, these numbers are much more compelling than last time considering both candidates are now on the air, with Northey attacking (while getting positive reinforcement from a 527 group that I’m sure didn’t coordinate with him even though their business partner group endorsed him), and Denise remaining positive. The Ag race will be close and depending on how well Culver does will greatly impact how well Denise does. Finally, in the SoS race, Mauro’s essentially got the race locked up against the invisible woman from Virginia (who now has a placeholder website that looks like its from 1996). I’ll be surprised if she breaks 40% on election day.

We’re now just a bit away from 72 hours until the polls close. Democrats: Get Out the Vote and volunteer!

UPDATE: Here is a Pollster.com chart showing how Culver has been building his momentum in the lead up to Election Day.

IA-02, 03: Boswell drops out of National Journal rankings, Leach joins

Published by
Chris Woods
November 4, 2006 in 2006 Elections, Boswell, Leonard, Congress, Culver, Chet, Democrats, Harkin, Tom, IA-02, IA-03, Iowa politics, Polls, Republicans and Voting. 3 Comments

Yesterday, Chuck Todd released his newest set of House race rankings which, for the first time since June, did not include incumbent Democratic Congressman Leonard Boswell from here in the IA-03. Clearly, the Washington establishment feels that the race has been locked up by Boswell — even if the results will be close. Clearly, a campaign visit by Bush for Lamberti wasn’t the motivator they were looking for (which begs the question about Bush’s help or hindrance for Jim Nussle yesterday?)

In what was arguably one of the most surprising moves, Todd also added Jim Leach, Republican incumbent congressman from the IA-02 onto his list. Granted Leach was only at position #59 which doesn’t necessarily mean anything — save for the fact that if the wave is as big as prognosticators like Stu Rothenberg think it will be (40-50 seats going to the Dems) then Leach might not survive at all.

Not only is Todd’s inclusion of Leach’s seat on the list surprising — so far the Iowa blogosphere has been about the only place where discussion about Leach had been happening until Chuck Todd mentioned the race between Leach and Loebsack on Hotline TV this week — but the NRCC is now taking challenger Dave Loebsack seriously and have paid to have a poll put in the field so they can start getting tracking numbers for the race over the next few nights to see if Leach is going to need NRCC GOTV efforts in the IA-02 (probably pulling some folks from the IA-01 or IA-03 since the IA-02 is critical to hold). Yesterday, they spent $21k on opinion polling, as noted here with independent expenditures.

As Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post notes:

“The NRCC poll is likely a check-in to make sure that Leach could survive a major Democratic wave.”

The Republicans in the IA-02 are scared. The DCCC should take notice and see what they can do to at least generate a wave in the Iowa City area and get out the vote for Dave Loebsack.

And I’m sure Loebsack will appreciate the GOTV rally he’ll be partaking in on Sunday with Culver, Obama, Harkin, Vilsack, and others at the Iowa City Ped Mall on the U of Iowa campus.

If you’re in the Iowa City area, call 319-337-3164 to volunteer with GOTV efforts over the next few days. If you’re in the Cedar Rapids area, call 319-221-1065. If you’re in Ottumwa, call 641-682-9038. They need your help. You can also visit Loebsack’s campaign site for more information.

IA-Gov, 03, and SoS: New KCCI poll will show Dems leading in all races

Published by
Chris Woods
November 1, 2006 in 2006 Elections, 2006 Governor's Race, Boswell, Leonard, Culver, Chet, Democrats, IA-03, Iowa politics, Lamberti, Jeff, Nussle, Jim, Polls, Republicans and Voting. 15 Comments

UPDATE: The PDF results are up here, along wtih KCCI’s story here. The results aren’t as in-depth as in the past, so essentially, there isn’t much to breakdown. The basics:

  • Culver leads by 14% among women and 7% by independents.
  • President Bush’s approval is at 33% here in Iowa.
  • Generic congressional ballot (Would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress this year?): Democrats in control-55%, Republicans-42%, and Not Sure-3%
  • Boswell leads by 19% among independents.

Advantage Democrats.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
I just got word from a solid source that a new KCCI/Research 2000 poll will be release tonight. It will show:

  • IA-03: Boswell-53% to Lamberti-41% (Boswell leads among both men and women)
  • IA-Gov: Culver-50% to Nussle-45%
  • IA-SoS: Mauro-48% to Hanusa-42%

As I said below, Democrats have the momentum. Boswell seems to have his race locked up and I think that as Mike Mauro is on the air more in the next 6 days, he’ll pull away from Hanusa. I think those are the numbers most out of whack in the poll, but are reflective of how little-known both candidates are. For the record, it appears that the margin of error will be +/- 5%.

I’ll post full PDF breakdown as soon as it is available.

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